Currently euro longs established a minor support at 1.2819, Feb 7-10 consolidation high, which offers the first line of defense, followed by an intermediate support at 1.2757, Nov 5 spike low. Dollar bulls shifted their defensive positions to keep up with their advance. Euro longs will encounter a minor resistance at 1.2890, a 78.6 Fib of the 1.2730-1.3482 euro rally, with 1.2916, a 5-day SMA providing an intermediate resistance. In case the euro bulls manage to penetrate the lesser defenses, a major resistance at 1.2971, Mar 25-31 consolidation range high, will stand in the way of further euro advance. Oscillators are signaling oversold conditions with Stochastic extremely oversold at 7.56 on the daily chart and is oversold at 10.24 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI at 30.81 continues to tread above the oversold level on the daily and is treading above the oversold line at 30.59 on the 4-hour chart. MACD continues to travel the zero line on the daily chart and remains below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.Key levels
USD/JPY - Yen remains trapped within an upward slopping channel, as dollar longs continue to push the pair closer to the minor resistance at 108.82, an Oct 18 spike low. A breakout above will encounter an intermediate resistance at 109.14 an Oct 11 daily low, which defends the major resistance at 109.92, a 61.8 Fib of the May-Jan yen rally. The 109.92 is a tempting target for the dollar longs as it defends the 111.48, a start of the Nov-Dec yen rally. Dollar longs tightened their defenses with minor support at 107.78, an Apr 1 high, followed by an intermediate support at 107.54, a 5-day SMA. A major support 106.97, a 10-day SMA, currently defends the dollar held territory from a yen countermove. Indicators are aligned signaling extremely overbought condition with Stochastic extremely overbought on both daily chart at 94.03 and at 93.08 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI remains above the overbought line on the daily at 77.19 and is overbought at 77.52 on the 4-hour chart. MACD continues to travel above the zero line on both daily and the dealer (4HR) charts. Key levels GBP/USD - Sterling remains defiant, still clinging to the lost cause, as the dollar bulls continue to pound cable bids with unrelenting ferocity. Currently the dollar longs are making their way to a minor support at 1.8707, an Apr 4 low, which is defending an intermediate support at 1.8680, a key 78.6 Fib of the 1.8505-1.9328 sterling rally. A major support at 1.8590, a Mar 28 spike low, stands in the way of the dollar advance toward the 1.8505, a 2005 low, as a breakdown below will target the 1.8412, a 61.8 Fib of the 1.7710-1.9550 pound rally. Dollar bulls entrenched themselves further with minor resistance seen at 1.8818, a 61.8 Fib of the Feb-Mar pound rally. Advancing pound longs will encounter an intermediate resistance at 1.8863, Jan 7 spike high, followed by the major resistance at 1.8915, a 50.0 Fib of the 1.8505-1.9328 sterling rally. Indicators are mixed with Stochastic oversold on both the daily chart at 24.16 and the dealer (4HR) chart at 22.34. RSI remains neutral on both daily chart at 39.56 and the 4-hour chart at 47.05. MACD is getting ready for a bullish crossover below the zero line on the daily chart and is about to dip below the zero line on the dealer chart. Key levelsUSD/CHF - Swiss bulls relinquished more ground to the dollar as the greenback pushed the pair above the 1.2100, with sights now set on 1.2139, a minor resistance created by the Oct 28 spike low. An intermediate resistance at 1.2209, a Jun 12 spike low, currently stands in the way of the dollar advance toward the 1.2262, a major resistance and the 2005 high, as a break out above will target the 1.2519, a 78.6 Fib of the 1.2849-1.1288 CHF rally. In case of the counter move by the Swissie bulls, dollar has established a minor support at 1.2094, a 78.6 Fibonacci of the 1.2262-1.1474 Swissie rally. An intermediate support at 1.2039,a Mar 31 high, protects the major support at 1.2002, a 10-day SMA. Oscillators are bearish with Stochastic remaining extremely overbought at 88.30 on the daily chart; with a dealer (4HR) chart Stochastic treading above the oversold line at 90.09. RSI continues to tread below the overbought territory on both the daily chart at 68.53 and at 67.71 on the 4-hour chart. MACD is above the zero line on the daily chart and continues to tread above the zero line on the dealer chart. Key level Technical Overview Chart of the Day - NZD/USD
04/05After reaching an all time high of .7466, Kiwi fell and broke below both the minor and major channels. Currently the pair is pausing at the support created by the Dec10-13 double spike low. A further breakdown will see the pair retest the .6873, a 38.2 Fib of the .5914-.7466 bull channeling pattern, with further breakdown targeting the .6690, a 50.0 Fib of the May-Apr NZD rally. Indicators are pointing to strong trending conditions. Stochastic is extremely oversold at 9.45. ATR is falling, pointing to a trend. The most significant signal is being sent by the ADX(DMI), which is at 31.13 showing a strong trending market. 03/10Kiwi had reached all time high of .7448 today, bouncing of a 61.8 Fib extension of the Sep-Dec swing rally. The long-term uptrend remains intact as the large channel remains valid. Kiwi bulls should find support at .7300 comprised by a 2/22 spike and lower boundary of a minor channel. Further long-term support is seen at .7200, a range breakout, which NZD retested on the 2/28, leaving a bullish Doji star in its wake. Aggressive Kiwi bears will probably try to establish short positions at .7600-.7625 levels marked by upper boundaries of minor and major channels and 78.6 Fib of Sep-Dec swing rally. A breakout above the .7625 level may see the pair extend its rally to .7774, fully mimicking the Sep-Dec swing and breaking above the large channel. Previous .7200 bearish play failed as NZD staged a breakout and carried shorts up to .7300. Indicators point to a beginning of a trend as Stochastic remains overbought, failing to dip below the overbought line on a latest pullback. The ADX/DMI is above 20 indicating a trend with ATR continuing to fall demonstrating dropping volatility, which is indicative of a trending price action.
Technical Levels - London/New York