Commodity Currencies Rolling Over

EURUSD – Very little has happened since 11/10.  The EURUSD has ranged between 1.2761 and 1.2902 since that time.  The larger triangle scenario does not garner as much confidence with the rally today to 1.2870.  That pattern favors a decline in what would complete the 5 wave triangle.  Targets going forward and potential reversal points (reverse to the upside) are at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2483-1.2902 at 1.2742 and the 61.8% at 1.2644.  A short term resistance line from a bearish channel is just above current price.  The lower end of the channel is support near 1.2750.  Only a break above 1.2902 suggests greater bullish potential.  Resistance from the 78.6% of 1.2902-1.2761 at 1.2872 and overbought RSI on the hourly give scope to a near term move lower.    

USDJPY – The USDJPY is heading towards the lower end of the 117.12-118.58 range that has persisted for most of November.  A break below 117.12 exposes the 11/1 low at 116.54.  With hourly RSI oversold and the shelf of support below current price – immediate downside risk may be limited.  Significant resistance is not until the 11/21 high at 118.24.  A break above the 11/9 high at 118.58 is required in order to suggest greater bullish potential.  Daily oscillators tilt the boat in favor if bears as CCI and RSI are below their respective midpoints.

GBPUSD – Cable’s rally has extended just past the 61.8% fibo of 1.9178-1.8834 at 1.9047.  Resistance at this juncture is bolstered by former congestion in the area and the 11/14 high at 1.9050.  The next resistance level is the 78.6% fibo at 1.9104.  As is the case with EURUSD, hourly RSI is extreme at above 70, thus a pullback may be required before aggressive buying takes place.  Immediate support on a pullback is at yesterday’s high at 1.9003.          

USDCHF – The USDCHF has broken the supporting trendline that began back in May and the decline has stalled just above the 11/10 low at 1.2346.  A break below 1.2346 exposes the 9/25 low at 1.2288.  Whether or not this decline can continue is circumspect considering.  The proximity of 1.2346 and price at the lower Bollinger band (daily) along with RSI increasing from below 30 on the hourly suggests that a rally attempt may take place.  Initial support would be at the 1/21 low at 1.2396.

USDCAD – The USDCAD has slipped following the failure just in front of the 1.1500 figure.  The short term picture remains bullish as long as price holds above a short term support line from 11/10.  The larger uptrend remains in place above the support line drawn off of the 9/1, 9/28 and 10/30 lows.  Former resistance at the 10/17 high of 1.1413 is now support.  Price needs to remain above the 11/2 high of 1.1372 in order for the short term bullish structure to remain intact.  Bullish targets going forward include the 138.2% and 161.8% extensions of 1.1177-1.1372 from 1.1255 at 1.1524 and 1.1572.

AUDUSD – The AUDUSD was able to push through the .7700 figure this morning as well as the 78.6% of .7759-.7614 at .7728.  An upward sloping resistance line drawn off of the 11/14 and 11/16 highs is just above the high from tonight and reinforces resistance at .7740.  A short term supporting trendline is at the .7700 figure and a break below there would expose the 11/13 low at .7614. 

NZDUSD – The rally from .6574 has challenged the 78.6% of .6750-.6574 at .6713 again this morning, creating a short term double top.  Similar to the AUDUSD, a short term supporting trendline is just below the current price.  A break below that trendline would suggest greater bearish potential towards the 11/15 low at .6574.  A push through negates the double top and gives scope to .6750.