If, as Ms. Yellen suggests the Fed will begin to be more sensitive to US economic data, the news for dollar longs in the near term may only get worse. Most of the estimates on the US calendar this week are expected to show lower comparisons with periods prior which could add even more downside pressure to the greenback. Furthermore, the Housing ATM, that has fueled much of US consumer spending may be finally running out of cash. As we wrote in our weekly piece, “Why do we keep harping about this subject practically every week? Because for all intents and purposes Housing is the US economy these days. It is responsible not only for the vast majority of the nation’s wealth creation since 2001 but also its marginal income, as US consumers in the absence of meaningful wage gains resorted to tapping their home equity loans to the tune of nearly 1 Trillion dollars in 2005. So if housing declines it is very difficult to see how the dollar would not follow. It may happen of course – the FX market can always surprise you – but for now we think this may be the key story to follow as 2006 begins to take shape.”
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