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GBP Rally as Weak GDP Pushes FTSE Down and Gilts Up

By Kathy Lien,
24 November 2006 13:28 GMT

UK GDP (Q3 9:30GMT; 4:30EST)

Actual:                   2.7%      

Expected:             2.8%      

Previous:              2.8%

 

How Did the Markets React? 


Monstrous stop driven rally in the pound and lower than expected GDP readings pushed UK sticks lower but binds higher on the assumption that a highly appreciating currency would further slowdown the economic growth in UK. Equities slipped as fears of higher exchange rates led traders to conclude that UK corporations will face greater competitive threats and lower profit margins in the near future, while UK bind traders bid up 10 year Gilts speculating that the BoE will be forced to halt any consideration of additional rate hikes 

 

UK 10-Year Government Bonds

Yields on the benchmark 10-year Gilts declined markedly as  bond traders anticipated further slowdown in the economy  given the lackluster GDP readings which printed at 2.7% versus 2.8% expected and the massive rally in the British pound  which raised concerns about UK’s competitive  standing in the global markets. For the day yields on the 10 year bonds dropped by 5 basis points to 4.52%

 

UK 10-Year Government Bond Yields (Intraday)

 

112406a

 

FX – GBP/USD

 

The pound scaled 23 month highs hitting 1.9350 as a massive stop driven rally on the back of EUR/USD crossing the 1.3000 mark helped fuel the move in sterling. With little fundamental news to support it the big move in the currency was driven by momentum buying amidst holiday thin markets. The unit rose nearly 200 points on the day as speculators rushed into the currency.

 

GBP/USD/ (Intraday)

 

Source: Bloomberg

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Equities – Footsie Down as Pound Up

 

UK equities fell in the wake of a rally in the pound as traders became concerned about the future competitivenes and profitability of UK businesses. By mid-morning the Footsie 100 index was down 52 points or nearly 1%. Kingfisher led the decliners in London, down 2.1 per cent at 250½p, after Deutsche Bank cut its recommendation on the home improvement retailer from ‘hold’ to ‘sell’, raising its price target by 5p to 220p.Banks extended recent losses as the interest rate outlook remained unclear. Barclays shed 1.4 per cent to 690½p, Lloyds TSB fell 1.3 per cent to 555p and Alliance & Leicester was down 1 per cent at £11.13.Cairn Energy shares continued to make gains on the back of Thursday’s successful Cairn India share placement. Shares in the oil explorer rose 1.3 per cent to £19.96.

 

London Footsie 100 (Intraday)

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24 November 2006 13:28 GMT