Currency Markets Follow Equities Lead on US Elections

How Did the Markets React? 

The US dollar followed domestic equity and bond markets to price in expectations of electoral gridlock through today’s elections. Despite staying relatively motionless through Monday trading, the Greenback subsequently lost ground against major world currencies as risk-averse traders shed positions on the lingering political uncertainty. Much as we had claimed in yesterday evening’s report, continued confusion over which political party will take control allowed stocks and bonds to continue their recent rally and finish higher on the day. Perhaps the most interesting development occurred through London trading, however, as currency markets were quick to follow cross-market currents and offer the dollar lower through the midpoint of the New York session. Market reactions effectively validated the usefulness of cross-market analysis, as earlier strength in fixed income and equities predicted the “correct” currency price move. Even implied volatilities were trading off of fresh record-lows, as options traders priced in the doubts behind a smooth electoral process. It will be important to monitor any further developments through tonight’s broadcasts of early results, with any surprises likely to cause further volatility across US asset classes.




Bonds – 10 Year US Treasuries

The flight to safety ahead of a potentially rocky electoral process was nowhere more evident than in US Treasury markets. Indeed, government debt premiums built on yesterday’s strength to send 10-year Notes just 7/32 points short of Friday’s high. Though a later retrace saw prices only modestly higher, yields dropped 4 basis points to 4.65 percent by the New York close. Reports of technical difficulties and speculation of corruption in the voting process increased the likelihood of a more drawn out electoral process. 10-Year Notes were unable to overcome three-day highs at 101-29, however, and settled to trade just above the 101-20 mark. The volatility in prices is nonetheless likely to continue through late trading, as US news agencies reveal early results from various state elections. One can expect further gains in Treasury premiums if races continue at relative deadlock, with yields to fall further from Friday’s highs.




FX – EUR/USD

A lack of scheduled economic indicators allowed for the uncertainty surrounding today’s Congressional election to guide the US dollar against its major pairings.  The interest underlying the event was clearly seen in the change in market conditions from session to session.  Going into the close of the New York session yesterday, the anti-dollar rally cooled as American traders squared their positions before going off line.  Then, over the bulk of the Asian and European sessions, the EURUSD was confined to a 25-point congestion area just above 1.2750 support.  When North American liquidity came back online though, the rally was reinstituted.  At 13:30 GMT, dollar selling took the pair all the way up to 1.2820 before greenback bulls stepped in to defend the relatively strong level of resistance.  A little later in the morning, after a failed attempt at a double top, dollar selling finally dried up and the pair quickly shed 45 points before leveling off.  Ending the session just a few points were it began reveals the same environment of uncertainty in the currency market that is afflicting stocks and bonds.  A relief move could be in store for the dollar majors when the votes have been tallied and the makeup of both the houses of Congress is certain.




Equities – S&P 500 Index    

All the major US equities indices were put on the move early Tuesday morning, helped along by easing crude prices and expectations for the final results in the mid-term congressional election.  Following yesterday’s strong advance, the broad S&P 500 chalked up its second bullish session on a 0.2 percent run.  However, looking at the intra-day progress of the benchmark index reveals most of the gains were captured in the opening hours, suggesting traders were working off momentum from Monday’s closing hours before caution took over.  In the opening forty minutes of trade, the S&P 500 made its biggest move in a steady 6.96 point rally to 1,386.85 by 15:10 GMT.  From there, choppy conditions ensued with the session high at 1,388.19 printed during the usually involatile lunch hours.  After the high was was recorded, a gradual sell off brought the gauge down around 1,383 around where it ended the day.  This caution seems well deserved.  Once again approaching recent record highs associated with what some have called an overextended run in the market suggests bulls require additional support from the fundamental coffers to secure another bullish leg into record breaking territory.  The difference between political gridlock and political harmony could determine the ultimate direction of equities for the months ahead.