The BoE voted 7-1-1 to keep rates unchanged for a second meeting in a row. Tim Besley continues to push for a rate hike, while perennial dove David Blanchflower called for easing.
The once resilient Euro zone economy is slowly succumbing to the downward pressures of a strong euro, a slowing global economy and tight credit conditions. Looking ahead, I expect the EUR/USD to fall further and test 1.40 dollars per euro.
The GBPUSD and AUDUSD are vulnerable to fresh lows in bearish thrusts from triangles. More permanent bottoms should then form.
Canadian retail sales are expected to modestly improve to 0.5% in June from the month’s prior o.4%. May’s reading missed expectations and sparked a “loonie” bearish rally that would ultimately see it lose nearly 700 points to the dollar.
Currency Pair: AUD/NZD (update) Chart: 15 Min Charts Short-Term Bias: Short
Currency Strategist
At -79,438, the British Pound composite COT is the lowest since July 1999. Cable was in a long term downtrend at that point as well, but the extreme bearish reading led to a nearly 1,400 pip rally before the resumption of the downtrend.