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Forex Points: The Loonie Surges To Two Month High Then Quickly Retreats

By Research Team,
29 June 2005 20:24 GMT
The New York session saw a surprising jump in the loonie to a two-month high against the dollar at C$1.2234 from the high of C$1.2350 shortly after the release of key US economic data. Despite the strong showing with first quarter U.S. GDP (3.8 percent versus the forecasted 3.7 percent) and personal consumption (3.7 percent in line with predictions), traders pushed the loonie higher in a matter of minutes. The market spent the rest of the session retracing the surge, bringing the pair to C$1.2280 at 20:00 GMT.
 
With no economic data from Canada today, the market focused solely on U.S. figures. Only the GDP price index fell short of expectations, registering a 2.9 percent increase versus the 3.2 percent prediction. Economic growth, on the other hand, was strong and lent major backing to the Fed’s policy of continued rate increases. Oil prices continued falling by almost $1 a barrel Wednesday after the U.S. Government released data that showed domestic supplies of oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel rose last week. It was the second straight day that the oil prices declined after hitting its high of $60.95 a barrel on Monday. Despite crude’s strong moves over recent day’s the pair continued to ignore its volatile moves in favor of important, upcoming releases from Canada and the U.S. at the end of the week.

Toronto equities remained in negative territory at noon on Wednesday, with energy stocks leading the way lower, as investors marked time before the start of a long weekend. At 19:00 GMT, the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index was down 13.35 points, or 0.13 percent, at 10,027.68. Volume was a light 81.5 million shares worth C$1.49 billion as investors sat on the sidelines ahead of the US interest rate decision and Canada’s growth numbers. Eight of the TSX index's 10 main groups were lower, led by a 2.2 percent drop in the dominant energy group and a 0.7 percent fall in the technology group.

Most of the country's largest energy producers were lower including PetroKazakhstan, which was off C$4.67, or 9.8 percent, at C$43.11 and Suncor Energy, which fell C$1.34, or 2.3 percent, to C$57.41. Technology stocks also lost ground on Wednesday, paced by bellwethers Nortel Networks, which dipped 5 Canadian cents, or 1.5 percent, to C$3.25 and Research In Motion, which shed 95 Canadian cents, or 1 percent, to C$93.25. Gold stocks proved to be one of the only bright spots in the day, rising 3.1 percent, as investors sought a safe haven ahead of the rate decision. Barrick Gold, the country's No.1 producer, was up 87 Canadian cents, or 2.9 percent, at C$31.22.

Canadian government bond yields traded near the highest rate in more than week ahead of tomorrow’s report which is expected to show economic growth accelerated in April. The 10-year government bond yield rose 2 basis points, or 0.02 percent, to 3.8 percent. The benchmark notes were trading at 108.99 late in the New York session.

Canadian markets will be closed Friday in observance of Canada Day.

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29 June 2005 20:24 GMT