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Forex Points: Canadian Market Update

By Research Team,
30 June 2005 21:28 GMT
Economic growth figures, one of the highly anticipated releases on the Canadian side, overcame U.S. data in the New York session, pushing the pair 75 pips in the loonie’s favor.  Early morning reports from both countries pushed the pair off of session highs at 1.2333 and quickly moved the pair to the low 1.2235.  The pair was trading at 1.2248 at 20:00 GMT.

For the first and likely only time this week, Canadian economic data was the highlight to traders.  Reports of GDP for April, and industrial product and raw materials prices for May took control of the pair.  Industrial product prices were unchanged after rising 0.4 percent in March, while raw material prices dropped 3.1 percent over the same period on the back of easing crude prices.  The more highly anticipated release for the day was Canada’s measure of economic growth, which showed expansion of 0.4 percent, faster than the expected 0.3 percent.  GDP will prove to be an important factor in the BoC’s next rate meeting on July 12.  U.S. numbers only gave traders more reason to bid the loonie.  Both personal income and spending disappointed moving 0.2 higher and unchanged respectively.  Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 25 fell 4,000 to 310,000 while continuing claims held steady at 2.6 million for five days ending June 18.  The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s index also fell short of its 54.0 forecast, coming in at 53.6; its lowest level in two years.  The one indicator going in the dollar’s favor was the Fed’s decision to raise short-term lending rates 25 basis points, but devoid of any change in wording, the change was already priced into the market.

Energy shares relinquished their sway over the equities markets for the first time this week, as info tech stocks paced the Canada’s main index well below the 10,000 level.  The Standard and Poor’s/TSX composite plummeted 126.56, or 1.26 percent, to 9,902.77, while the TSX Venture Exchange advanced 11.58, or 0.68 percent, to 1,726.83 by 20:30 GMT.  Pacing the tech sector lower were shares of Research In Motion, one of Canada’s largest tech companies.  Shares shed C$2.66 to C$90.24 despite a first quarter profit double expectations and an upgrade in forecasts for the second quarter.

Yields’ of ten-year Canadian government bonds surged to weekly highs early in trading, but the gain quickly turned into a loss after the U.S. Fed further expanded its rate advantage to by another quarter point.  Canadian 10-year bond prices jumped 0.44 to 109.49, with yields plunging 6 basis points to 3.74.  10-Year Canadian Bond futures contracts for September delivery rose 0.36 to 116.60.

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30 June 2005 21:28 GMT