currency crosses

-EURGBP may have bottomed for several months
-EURCHF range tightens
-EURCAD long term look
-EURAUD resistance not until 1.8662
-EURNZD reversal from an ending diagonal

Euro / British Pound


The EURGBP may be carving out a large complex correction from the December 2008 top.  The structure of the decline since then is not especially clear, which is the first sign that the pair in question is stuck in some sort of correction.  The count above, if correct, would see an X wave rally retrace most of the decline since December followed.

Euro / Swiss Franc


The EURCHF remains confined to a contracting range.  Bulls have been thwarted by the 200 day SMA (red) and a drop below 1.5000 would expose the 61.8% of the bull leg from 1.4575 at 1.4910.  There is also a potential support drawn off of the October 2008 and March lows.  That line is at 1.4800 today and increases about 3 pips per day.

Euro / Canadian Dollar


I want to show a long term look at the EURCAD because the implications from a multi-decade head and shoulders top are enormous.  This pattern is not confirmed but failure to hold above a support line from late 2007 favors bears.  There is resistance over the next several weeks at 1.6385 (Fibonacci).  

Euro / Australian Dollar


I showed the monthly chart of the EURAUD last week, mentioning that “it is possible that a multi decade top is in place for the EURAUD at 2.1174 (October 2008 high).  The implications here are enormous of course.  This is a pair that you may want to keep an eye on.  Even if the top is in at 2.1174, there will be a strong advance before the bulk of the decline (as a second wave) so be patient.”  That advance is underway and resistance is not until 1.8662.

Euro / New Zealand Dollar


Last week, I wrote that “the decline from the February high may be nearing an end as a 5th wave diagonal.  A drop below 2.1630 would complete 5 waves down from 2.5815 and set the stage for a countertrend rally back to 2.3600.”  The EURNZD low last week was at 2.1588.  The pair is headed higher, potentially as high as 2.3600 before the long term decline resumes.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close.  He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
   
Please send comments about this report to jsaettele@dailyfx.com


 

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