currency crosses

The euro rally is testing resistance against its counterparts.

Longer term, I expect a reversal of strength that has persisted since 2000.  Within a few years, the EURGBP could drop below the 2000 low of .5680.  Near term, a push above .8669 is expected.  This rally could complete the entire 8 year rally.

I wrote last update that “the EURCHF rally from the October low at 1.4296 is nearing the point where it would consist of 2 equal legs; which is at 1.5616.  This level, along with the 10/14 and 10/7 highs at 1.5567 and 1.5621, should provide strong resistance.”  The EURCHF reversed ahead of mentioned resistance, which is defended by the 61.8% of 1.6372-1.4296 at 1.5546.  The formation of the rally is a wedge and daily RSI has rolled over from above 70; this evidence favors bears, although the pair could certainly spike through 1.5538 and punish those that are too early to the trade / set stops too close.

The 2001 low to the 2007 low, the EURCAD has traced out 5 waves up and 3 waves down.  The implications from this pattern are bullish and indicate that price is likely to exceed the 2004 high at 1.6971.  Bulls can position for this move at short term Fibonacci support in the 1.5342-1.5508 zone, against 1.4818.

The decline from 2.1174 to 1.8487 was in 3 waves, which is corrective and indicates that the larger trend is still up.  A break above 2.1174 is expected.  However, a larger correction in the form of a triangle is also a possibility.  In that case, the pair would follow a path similar to the one mapped out on the chart.

Last update, I wrote that “a 3rd of a 3rd wave is considered underway as long as price is above 2.1024.  The EURNZD rally may accelerate in the days and weeks ahead.”  The immediate bullish outlook is favored as long as price is above 2.3014.  2.35 provides short term support if needed.  The ultimate bullish target is above 2.6171.

Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT Analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week.  He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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