currency crosses

-EURGBP faces strong resistance
-EURCHF at 200 day SMA
-EURAUD and EURNZD have formed bullish bases

Euro / British Pound

Expect a pullback in the EURGBP as the pair has run into resistance from a former pivot high (circled), trendline resistance and the 200 day SMA. Former resistance at .8700 is now potential support.

Euro / Swiss Franc

Since March, the EURCHF has traded in a narrow 400 pip range. Price is in the middle of this range now. There is no directional bias until price breaks the range. The 200 day SMA has provided support in recent months and is doing so now but be on the lookout for a break lower as a return to risk averse conditions favors CHF strength.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

The series of lower lows and lower highs in the EURCAD since the December 2008 high takes the form of a wedge, which is bullish going forward. Favor the upside against 1.5360 - there is potential support at 1.5500.

Euro / Australian Dollar

“The EURAUD is trading at its lowest level since August 2008. Daily RSI is divergent with the new low.” The EURAUD held its August 10th low, which keeps the reversal scenario valid. Favor the upside.

Euro / New Zealand Dollar

I have maintained in recent weeks that “the decline from the February high is nearing and end as a 5th wave diagonal. Expectations are for a recovery back to 2.3600 (full retracement of the diagonal). Reversals from diagonals can be sharp.” The EURNZD has held above its August 14th low for 2+ weeks now. The pair could rocket higher from the base that has formed since then any day.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday). He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

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