The Euro may head lower from the top of long term ranges against the EURCAD, EURAUD, and EURNZD.
5 waves up from the January 2007 low at .6535 and daily RSI rolling over from above 70 suggest that a large corrective decline is underway from .8187. The Fibonacci zone does not begin until .7556. Near term, price should remain below .8006.
5 waves up from 1.5326 suggests that the longer term trend has turned up. The decline from 1.6376 stopped just shy of the 61.8% of 1.5326-1.6376 and today’s candle is a hammer (bullish reversal candle pattern). These are signs of a reversal.
The big picture shows a range playing out as possibly a triangle since 2000. Under this scenario, the pair should be headed lower in wave D of the triangle towards 1.40 over the next number of months. 1.5420-1.5725 is potential resistance.
The EURAUD broke above the 2004 high today and traded as high as 1.8167 before reversing. On intraday charts, it is possible to count 5 waves up from 1.6047. A correction may be underway. Support does not begin until 1.7351 but a deeper decline to former 4th wave at 1.6853 is possible.
The EURNZD is vulnerable weakness over the next few months to complete wave E of a triangle that began in 1992. The decline could be significant and retrace as much as half (or more) of the advance from 1.6326.
Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT Analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Contact at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT Analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Contact at jsaettele@dailyfx.com