currency crosses

-GBPCHF plunges to measured (Fibonacci) and channel support
-GBPCAD nears 1993 low
-GBPAUD tests 200 day SMA

The GBPCHF has fallen to an all-time low.  The current level is very close to the 161.8% extension of 2.7328-2.0928/2.4973; which is at 1.6217.  This measurement and the spike below parallel channel support suggests that a wave 3 (or C) low is forming.  Even a corrective advance is expected to reach former resistance in the 1.90 area.  Monthly RSI is at 14 as well.  This is not to say that there will be a v-shaped bottom. Rather, a bottom may form gradually.  

The GBPCAD is approaching potentially significant support from the February 1993 low at 1.7668.  This level is reinforced by the support line from a wedge (drawn off of the 2003 and 2006 lows).  Although not yet confirmed, there is potential divergence with monthly MACD.    

The GBPAUD spiked below the 200 day SMA and has bounced back.  The decline from 2.70 may be the first bear leg in a longer term decline.  Under the count presented above (5 waves down from 2.70), the GBPAUD would find a bottom for at least a few months and rally back to the 2.43 area. 

A multi-year triangle may be unfolding.  If so, then wave d of the triangle should be near completion and wave e would begin soon; resulting in a multi-month rally back to 2.8-2.9.

Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals  every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT Analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week.  He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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