The drop from 1.0823 is either a completed A-B-C decline or wave A of a large triangle. Either way, weakness is expected near term in order to correct the advance from .8881. Support should be strong near .9340. This is the 61.8% of .8881-1.0080. This level intersects a former resistance line on 6/30.
The advance from .8271 is extended (as evidenced by divergence with RSI) and a pullback that will take a few weeks and perhaps a month or more should be underway now. Fibonacci support does not begin until .9241.
The AUDNZD reached its highest level since July 2001 last week. Longer term, the pair is headed for a test and likely a break of the 2000 high of 1.3506. A consolidation/pullback is likely underway now that could potentially reach the May low at 1.2141. We’ll reiterate what we mentioned last week though; shorting is dangerous given the possibility that the advance extends from current levels (as the AUDNZD is in a 3rd of a 3rd wave). Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
TREND ANALYSIS is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.
SCHEDULE
Monday: EURGBP, EURCHF, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD
Tuesday: EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY
Wednesday: GBPCHF, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD
Thursday: AUDCHF, AUDCAD, AUDNZD