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Australian Dollar Crosses Find Long Term Support
Thursday, 06 November 2008 18:28:04 GMT  |  Jamie Saettele, Senior Currency Strategist
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Australian Dollar crosses have found long term support.  The pairs are likely to fall into ranges near term though.

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The AUDCHF is entering a range after trending down for the past few months.  A possible outcome for the range is a triangle.  Under the triangle scenario, the AUDCHF would fall from current price.  Support is in the .7176-.7350 zone (former daily lows).

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A line extended from the 1986 and 2001 AUDCAD lows intersects with last month’s low.  Could this be a multi-year low?  It is something worth considering.  Last month’s ATR was the 5th largest ever and the largest since 1985.  Previous large ATR’s signaled significant lows.      

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The 1.05 area is significant support for the AUDNZD and has been since the late 1980s.  In the summer of this year, the AUDNZD surged through a long term resistance line, but the break proved false (a different resistance line did hold).  Also, the AUDNZD is right at its 5 year moving average (60 month…red line on chart).  A long term direction will eventually be established; with a break above the trendline or a break below 1.05.  Until then, the AUDNZD may whip back and forth and a violent range.

 

 

Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week.  He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

 

Contact at jsaettele@dailyfx.com

 

 

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