Australian Dollar Crosses Build Bullish Bases

There are basic 2 kinds of trades, range and breakout…both require the pair to be at the edges of its recent range.  The AUDCHF is in the middle of the last 2 months range, which is not conducive to taking a directional trade.  Still, the AUDCHF has held above its October low for nearly 2 months now.  The pair may be building a base to work higher from (the rally from .6926 and subsequent decline from .8195) may be waves a and b of an a-b-c correction).    

I am staying bullish the AUDCAD, and moving risk to .8095.  There is potential short term support from a trendline at .8145 today.  The line increases about 22 pips per day.  .8875 (September 19 high) is resistance.

The AUDNZD has trended higher since the October low, which is above significant long term support (1.05 area).  Resistance from a late summer-early fall congestion zone turned back price at 1.2250.  I wrote last week that “RSI rolled over from above 70, so a deeper pullback could slice through the mentioned support line.  In such a scenario, support begins at 1.1717.”  The pair has come into the support zone, which is defended by the 38.2% of 1.0848-1.2304.  A rally may begin from near current price in a 5th wave that will end above 1.2304.

Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week.  He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.