Commodity dollars like the Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar slipped for much of Wednesday’s trading session, but the latter saw a surprising bounce following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) rate decision.
Indeed, the RBNZ slashed their Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) target by 100bps to 6.50 percent, which is the sharpest cut since the OCR was introduced in March 1999. This move was in line with expectations, and though RBNZ Governor Bollard said that he expects rates will be lowered further, the New Zealand dollar gained. Why? A closer look at the policy statement shows that Mr. Bollard also suggested that rates could be left steady at their next policy meeting, as he said that further cuts depend on "evidence of actual reductions in domestic cost pressures as well as how the global financial developments play out." Furthermore, during a post-meeting press conference, Mr. Bollard said future rate cuts "won't necessarily be of this size." As a result, the markets are betting that the RBNZ will await additional data before making monetary policy more accommodative, and will do so at a slower pace. This decision may have a major impact on currencies going forward, as the RBNZ has essentially thrown a wrench in the market’s expectations that interest rates would be cut aggressively in coming months by central banks with high overnight lending rates. If we see the New Zealand dollar gain overnight, there will be reason to believe that it may have formed at least a short-term bottom. Since the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar hold a very tight correlation, this would also bode well for Aussie.
Related Article: USD/CAD Up Nearly 3% on Weak Oil, Retail Sales, NZD Gains Despite Record 100bp Cut by the RBNZ to 6.50%
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