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Yen Technical Outlook

Wednesday, 02 July 2008 14:29:04 GMT

Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Analyst

We wrote yesterday that “the USDJPY decline from 108.57 could be the beginning of larger wave 3.

However, it is not yet safe to enter from the short side.  The rally from 104.99 is an impulse (5 waves) and the subsequent drop is a correction (zigzag).  Price should then exceed 106.38 in the next day or so.  We’ll look for a top and reversal near 107.11 (6/17 top and 61.8% of 108.41-104.99).”  The USDJPY reversed at 106.75, near the 50% of 108.41-104.99.  It is possible that the USDJPY will accelerate lower in a 3rd of a 3rd wave so a bearish bias is warranted against 106.75.

STRATEGY: Bearish, against 106.75, target TBD

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