The Japanese yen has traded very choppily lately, but remains below its October 24 highs where the low-yielding currency ran into critical resistance versus most of the majors.
However, given the drop in US shares on Wednesday that led the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 to close at the lower levels since March 2003, it may only be a matter of time before we see the yen test the October highs once again. Indeed, investor sentiment has been the key trend we’ve been following in the forex markets, as bouts of risk aversion that lead equities lower tend to benefit the Japanese yen. According to our latest forex correlations report, the correlation between USD/JPY and the Dow is near the highest levels in at least 20 years, and with stocks likely to fall even lower, the outlook suggests the Japanese yen could gain much more. In economic news, the markets are likely to start paying a bit more attention to the Bank of Japan's rate decision following their surprise 20bp rate cut last month. The BOJ’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet overnight, and while no decision is scheduled to be announced until late Thursday night, they are likely to leave rates unchanged. However, it will be important to get a sense of what the Committee expects for growth and inflation going forward. Bearish investors are betting that many central banks will move towards Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) in coming months, a policy Japan implemented in the 1990's and essentially stuck with until July 2006. With Japanese interest rates already extremely low at 0.3 percent, the BOJ would logically be the first to get there once again.
Related Article: Japanese Yen May Rally Through GDP Numbers on Carry Flows
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