With so much capital gains as well carry interest profits booked in yen crosses, they are the easiest targets for profit taking by hedge funds in trouble. Much of the rise in oil has been driven by speculative interest as has the practice of shorting the yen to fund carry trades. At a time when investors will be critiquing the health of their hedge fund investments, we suspect that many funds will be looking to dress up their balance sheets as they rush to reassure investors that they are not in the same trouble as Amaranth. Cashing in on profits could continue to come to the benefit of the yen. Meanwhile the new military rule in Thailand continues to remain peaceful which is a sigh of relief for the Asian region as a whole. Oil prices also continue to remain low while the market speculates on the possibility of a near term revaluation move by China. Even though recent data has mostly been weak, we expect that the lower value of the yen against the Euro and the US dollar in the months of August and September will help turn things around in the months to come.
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