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GBPUSD-Traders Indecisively Buy the US Dollar Against the British Pound

Thursday, 09 October 2008 14:15:19 GMT

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst

GBP/USD Ratio: -1.20
Trading Forecast: Bullish

Forex Positioning in the GBPUSD

10-09-08-SSI3

 

GBPUSD – Our contrarian forex trading indicator has unfortunately proven inaccurate in its forecasts for GBPUSD rallies, as the forex trading “crowd” has presciently remained short the British Pound against the US dollar through its recent tumbles. The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.22 as nearly 55% of traders are short. In fact, traders have actually grown increasingly net-short the GBPUSD since last week—a typically strong signal to buy the British Pound against the US Dollar. Given that the SSI has recently proven inaccurate in forecasting GBPUSD price action, we hesitate to claim that it signals that the GBPUSD may rally through near-term trade. Our technical forecast for the GBPUSD predicts nonetheless predicts that the pair is likely to bounce before further declines.

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