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GBPUSD-Traders Indecisively Buy the US Dollar Against the British Pound
Thursday, 02 October 2008 13:58:16 GMT  |  David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst
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GBP/USD Ratio: -1.10
Trading Forecast: Bullish

Forex Positioning in the GBPUSD

10-02-08-ssi3

 

GBPUSD – Our forex positioning indicator’s forecasts for the British Pound/US dollar exchange rate unfortunately proved inaccurate through recent trade, as currency trading crowds accurately went short the GBPUSD ahead of sharp declines. Indeed, the majority of traders remain short as the ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.08; 52% of traders have sold the British Pound against the US dollar short. Our SSI indicator is contrarian in nature, and a negative SSI ratio would typically forecast GBPUSD rallies. Yet we note that short positions have fallen 13.7 percent overnight, while long positions have actually jumped by 8.7 percent. When the forex trading crowd is short the GBPUSD but begins to buy, the SSI gives a weak signal to go long the GBPUSD. Our technical forecast for the GBPUSD forecasts that the pair may remain flat or trade slightly higher before falling further through the medium term.

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