gbp fundamentals
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- Friday, 16 October 2009 23:58:24 GMT British Pound Looks to 3Q GDP to Keep the Bullish Momentum
- Wednesday, 14 October 2009 20:52:17 GMT British Pound Mostly Lower as Job Losses Add Up, Average Earnings Fall
- Wednesday, 14 October 2009 02:51:52 GMT UK Unemployment Rate to Hit 22-Year High, Boost Dovish BOE Outlook
- Monday, 12 October 2009 23:21:45 GMT UK House Prices Rose for Second Month in September, Says RICS
- Monday, 12 October 2009 20:06:38 GMT British Pound Down Despite Improvement in UK Trade Deficit, Rise in Producer Prices
- Friday, 09 October 2009 21:34:18 GMT British Pound Forecast Depends on Consumer Price Index Report
- Friday, 09 October 2009 02:52:54 GMT UK Producer Prices to Shrink Again, Hinting at Dovish BOE Ahead
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 23:31:59 GMT British Pound Comforted by Bank of England's Steady Hand
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 02:09:27 GMT British Pound Threatened as Bank of England Plots Policy Shift
- Wednesday, 07 October 2009 21:16:17 GMT British Pound Up Ahead of Bank of England Announcement - Neutral Stance Likely
- Tuesday, 06 October 2009 18:16:28 GMT British Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
- Monday, 05 October 2009 19:42:45 GMT British Pound Remains Under Pressure Despite Strong UK Data
- Friday, 02 October 2009 23:34:27 GMT British Pound: UK Data, BOE Decision Present Breakdown Potential
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 20:09:25 GMT Euro, British Pound Edge Higher in Choppy Day of Trading
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 00:28:52 GMT British Pound Wins a Long Over-Due Relief Rally
- Saturday, 26 September 2009 01:58:01 GMT British Pound Losing its Risk Appeal as Conditions Deteriorate
- Friday, 25 September 2009 21:53:37 GMT British Pound the Weakest of the Majors as GBPJPY Break Below Key Support
- Friday, 25 September 2009 00:14:11 GMT British Pound Tumbles as the Outlook for a Robust UK Recovery Fades
- Wednesday, 23 September 2009 19:54:24 GMT British Pound Gains as BOE Minutes Reflect Emerging Optimism on UK Economy
- Wednesday, 23 September 2009 02:21:33 GMT Bank of England Minutes - Economic Data Preview
The British pound continued to stage its rebound, and despite the fact UK interest rates are relatively low at 2.00 percent, the currency has been the strongest major currency in recent days as part of a correction of its massive declines through the second half of 2008. However, UK economic data was quite bearish as the British Retail Consortium’s Shop Price Index fell 2.0 percent during December, bringing the annual rate of growth down to 0.5 percent. Looking ahead to Thursday, the British pound should remain volatile as Bloomberg News is forecasting that the Bank of England will cut rates by 50 basis points at 7:00 ET on Thursday. This is indeed within the realm of possibilities since the UK has tipped into recession and the BOE, and UK government, anticipate that things will only get worse. In fact, the BOE’s latest Credit Conditions Survey for the fourth quarter indicated that they had worsened, with availability of loans down despite unexpectedly stable demand for mortgages. Furthermore, the survey said that spreads on secured lending to households and on corporate lending had widened, and that defaults on household and non-financial business loans had increased. Overall, this leaves the odds in favor of year another rate cut by the BOE on January 8, but the reaction of the British pound may depend on what sort of bias is reflected in the Monetary Policy Committee’s subsequent statement. My view? The British pound may only fall sharply if the BOE cuts rates more than expected, say by 100 basis points, but if the MPC only cuts rates by 25 – 50 basis points and suggests that they will leave rates unchanged next month, the currency could actually surge.
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