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British Pound Weighed Down By Drop in UK CPI, May Be Exacerbated By BOE Meeting Minutes

Wednesday, 19 November 2008 01:17:23 GMT

Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Strategist

The British pound traded within a roughly 200 point trading range against the US dollar, remaining under pressure following this morning’s release of UK inflation figures. Indeed, the annual rate of CPI growth fell at its fastest pace since recordkeeping began in 1997 to 4.5 percent in October from a record high of 5.2 percent. Meanwhile, the core measure of CPI, which excludes food and energy, slipped to 1.9 percent from 2.2 percent, suggesting that the Bank of England (BOE) has additional room to cut rates. Wednesday’s release of the BOE’s meeting minutes is likely to reiterate this sentiment, and they tend to be a huge market-mover for the British pound upon release at 4:30 ET. During the November meeting, the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee unexpectedly slashed the Bank Rate by a whopping 150bps to a 53-year low of 3.00 percent. This came on the tails of the BOE’s participation in the October 8 coordinated rate cuts, during which they reduced the Bank Rate by 50bps. The key to trading this release will be to gauge the vote count, as indications that the decision to cut rates was unanimous could lead the British pound to pull back sharply. The moves may only be exacerbated if the MPC’s discussion sounds dovish or notes deflation risks, as the markets will shift to price in more aggressive rate cuts going forward.

Related Article: British Pound Could Forge New Lows As Rate And Growth Outlook Fail

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