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British Pound Dives to 6-Year Lows on Carry Trade Declines
Monday, 27 October 2008 22:55:11 GMT  |  Terri Belkas, Currency Strategist
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The British pound remains extremely weak across the majors as it has a few factors working against it: 1) it is not a safe-haven like the US dollar or Swiss franc 2) it is not a low-yielder like the Japanese yen and 3) last week’s Q3 GDP figures confirmed that the country is in recession.

Instead, due to the relatively high interest rates maintained by the Bank of England (e.g. 4.50 percent in the UK versus 1.5 percent in the US), the British pound get hits particularly hard when carry trades selloff in general. When you also consider the Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are pricing in nearly 200 basis points worth of rate cuts by the BOE over the next 12 months, it’s clear that there is still bearish potential for the currency. Looking ahead to tomorrow, CBI Distributive Trades may reveal negative sales yet again, especially since PMI manufacturing for the UK has held below 50 (signaling contraction) for five consecutive months.

Related Article: British Pound Dives On UK Recession News - Rebound Potential?

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