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Euro Technical Outlook

Tuesday, 29 April 2008 12:44:21 GMT

Written by Jamie Saettele, Currency Analyst

As focused on yesterday, “5 waves down from 1.6018 confirms that the an important top is in place.  The rally from 1.5554 is in 3 waves and is therefore corrective.  1.5694 may be the top of wave 2 (as shown above).  The alternate count treats the rally from 1.5554 to 1.5694 as wave w in a larger w, x, y correction. 

Potential resistance on a push through 1.5694 begins at 1.5731.”  The developments this morning make it likely that 1.5694 is the top of wave 2 since the EURUSD has already dropped below 1.5554.  For wave 2 to end above 1.5694, the pair would have to trace out an expanded flat, which is more common in 4th waves.  In summary, expect the EURUSD decline to accelerate in a 3rd wave. 

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