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Euro Technical Outlook

Tuesday, 01 April 2008 12:29:58 GMT

Written by Jamie Saettele, Currency Analyst

The EURUSD bullish boat got a bit too full and has tipped over (finally).  Our best longer term count treats the decline from 1.5904 as wave 4 (within the 5 wave advance from 1.2865) of III (within the 5 wave advance from 1.1638).  Typically, 4th waves retrace about 38.2% of wave 3 of the same degree; that would place the EURUSD near 1.4894. 

Another common occurrence is for price to come back to the center of the triangle that the break occurred from.  That places the EURUSD near 1.4650 (very close to the 50% at 1.4582).  Near term, there may be 5 waves complete from 1.5895.  If so, then 1.5700 should provide resistance.  It is also possible that the EURUSD extends lower immediately. 

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