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Euro SSI Reading Closes In On A Flip

Thursday, 03 April 2008 18:38:27 GMT

Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst

EUR/USD Ratio: -1.19
Signal: Bullish

Currency Last Week Present* % Long % Change in Positions Outstanding Signal
EURUSD -1.16 -1.19 46% 6.00% Bullish

SSI3_4-3

EURUSD – Speculative retail traders have increased their short EURUSD positions modestly since last week, yet the net ratio is still very close to a remarkable flip. The Speculative Sentiment Index ratio stands at -1.19 compared to -1.16 last week and -1.47 the week before that. Looking back over the historical SSI data, it is clear that the negative reading the euro has held since the end of 2006 has grown less extreme with time; and bleeding momentum for a possible flip. Looking to the gauge’s details, long positions were only 1.8% greater than yesterday and up 6.1% on the week. Shorts fell1.8% since Wednesday, though they grew 5.9% since last week. Net positioning was 6.0% firmer than last week, though open interest is still 7.6% below the monthly average. As a contrarian indicator, the SSI points to an extended EURUSD advance, but the potential for a flip looms large.

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