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Euro Positioning Trending Higher While Open Interest Rises Steadily

Thursday, 14 February 2008 16:49:10 GMT

Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst

EUR/USD Ratio: -1.05
Signal: Bullish

Currency Last Week Present* % Long % Change in Positions Outstanding Signal
EUR/USD -1 -1.05 49% 14.55% Bullish

SSI2_2-14

EURUSD - Though the EURUSD’s positioning ratio has dipped to a net negative reading, it has not strayed far from a parity 1.00 reading through the week. This directionless sentiment among the retail group coincides with the congestion seen in the underlying pair which has carved a closing wedge between 1.4400 and 1.4900. Looking out over the longer term, the negative reading from the euro’s SSI has steadily diminished for nearly two quarters. Since this is a contrarian indicator, this may be leading to a bearish outlook for the EURUSD over the medium term should the flip build momentum for positioning. What’s more, with open interest up nearly 15 percent over the previous week, whatever signal the SSI is destined for it is growing stronger and therefore more reliable.

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