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EURUSD-Euro Outlook Remains Bearish, but Watch for Short-term EURUSD Bounce

Thursday, 04 September 2008 14:21:25 GMT

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst

EUR/USD Ratio: 1.19
Trading Signal: Bearish

Forex Positioning in the Euro/US Dollar 

Currency Last Week Present* % Long % Change in Positions Outstanding Signal
EURUSD 1.07 1.19 54% -20.89% Bearish
 

SSI1_09_04_08

 

EURUSD – Forex traders remain net-long the Euro against the US dollar, and our contrarian forex positioning Speculative Sentiment Index indicator predicts further EURUSD declines. Indeed, the ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.19 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yet it very much serves to note that currency traders have pulled back bullish expectations for the euro, and long positions are 6.1 percent lower than yesterday and 31.2 percent below levels from last week. In turn, short positions are 15.1 percent higher than yesterday and 3.9 percent weaker since last week. If traders are long but reducing exposure, our SSI forex sentiment indicator suggests that the medium-term remains lower, but the short-term could see a noteworthy correction. Tell us what you believe in our forex forum EURUSD thread.

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