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EURUSD-Euro Outlook Remains Bearish, but Watch for Short-term EURUSD Bounce

Thursday, 11 September 2008 13:00:00 GMT

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst

EUR/USD Ratio: 1.21
Trading Signal: Bearish

Forex Positioning in the Euro/US Dollar 

Currency Last Week Present* % Long % Change in Positions Outstanding Signal
EURUSD 1.19 1.21 55% -12.50% Bearish
 

Forex_Trading_2008-09-11_2

 

EURUSD – Forex trading speculators continue to buy the Euro/US Dollar currency pair, but surprisingly balanced positioning suggests that our contrarian Speculative Sentiment Indicator may forecast EURUSD gains through the near term. Typically the FXCM SSI works best when forex speculator sentiment remains extreme, with SSI ratios above 2.0 or below -2.0. Yet we see that indecisive currency trading markets maintain little bias on the EURUSD despite its extensive downward moves. We will wait until there is a more decisive turn in forex positioning until we give a clearer forecast for the Euro/US dollar pair, but a modestly positive SSI Ratio suggests that short-term risks remain to the downside for the EURUSD losses.  Tell us what you believe in our forex forum EURUSD thread.

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