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Euro Accurately Forecast to Rally Against US Dollar

By David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist
11 December 2008 16:09 GMT

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EURUSD - Currency trading crowds have recently gone heavily net-short the Euro against the US Dollar, giving a strong contrarian signal to buy the Euro/US Dollar pair. Indeed, the EUR/USD SSI ratio currently stands at -1.63 as 62 percent of traders are currently short. This was a fairly pronounced shift from yesterday, as short positions surged 62.4 percent on the Euro’s test of clear resistance. Typically such shifts signal that a currency pair is likely to break out of its range, and indeed our SSI-based trading signals went long the Euro/US dollar across three separate trading strategies. The heavily net-short SSI ratio gives a continued contrarian signal to buy the Euro/US Dollar.

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11 December 2008 16:09 GMT