Interesting Price Action Follow Trichet's Comments "Strong Vigilance"
Thursday, 08 February 2007 21:37:25 GMT
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Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist
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Even though there was no US data to drive market
activity today, there was quite a bit of interesting price action. The
main event was the press conference after the ECB meeting. Interest rates
were left unchanged, but as soon as the words “strong vigilance” came out of
Trichet’s mouth, the ECB’s hawkish bias was set and bullishness was instilled in
the Euro. The behavior in the British pound however was very
different. The currency collapsed after the Bank of England left interest
rates unchanged. It appears that more than a small minority may have been
expecting an interest rate hike.
The Australian and Canadian dollars rallied thanks a
rise in commodity prices while the New Zealand dollar collapsed after Finance
Minister Cullen said that he was considering imposing a mortgage levy to curb
the growth of the housing market. The action has been in the crosses with
typically range bound pairs like the EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF seeing unusually large
moves. The Tier 2 US data released today pretty much offset each
other. Wholesale inventories fell short of expectations while wholesale
sales were stronger than expected. Jobless claims were slightly higher,
but remained at levels that were indicative of limited job losses.
Tomorrow’s market activity should continue to be driven by factors outside of
the US since no economic data is due for release. We expect the most
interesting movements in the Japanese Yen as traders adjust their positioning
ahead of the G7 meeting
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