eur fundamentals
Article
Previous Articles
Print
- Saturday, 17 October 2009 00:08:56 GMT Euro Near Major Top Against US Dollar, but Timing Anything but Clear
- Friday, 16 October 2009 23:25:32 GMT US Dollar May Be Setting Stage for Advance
- Wednesday, 14 October 2009 20:50:00 GMT Euro Rally Toward 1.50 Continues as Industrial Output Rises for Fourth Month
- Monday, 12 October 2009 20:05:09 GMT Euro Ends Week Just Above 1.4700 as German Trade Surplus Narrows
- Saturday, 10 October 2009 02:24:05 GMT US Dollar: At the Mercy of Risk Appetite...or is It?
- Friday, 09 October 2009 23:07:02 GMT Euro Could Succumb to ECB's Neutral Stance, Weak Data
- Friday, 09 October 2009 21:33:45 GMT Euro Ends Week Just Above 1.4700 as German Trade Surplus Narrows
- Friday, 09 October 2009 02:23:25 GMT German Current Account Set to Narrow in August
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 23:31:21 GMT Euro Looks like it May End up a Laggard in the Rate Game Given the ECB's Stance
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 23:30:39 GMT US Dollar and Dow on the Verge of Opposing Breaks
- Wednesday, 07 October 2009 21:15:48 GMT Euro Down as Q2 GDP Gets Revised Lower - European Central Bank Decision on Thursday
- Tuesday, 06 October 2009 17:45:40 GMT Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
- Monday, 05 October 2009 19:42:00 GMT Euro Mostly Higher as Services PMI Signals Expansion for First Time Since May 2008
- Monday, 05 October 2009 03:52:22 GMT Euro Zone Investor Confidence to Hit 14-Month High But Markets May Not Notice
- Monday, 05 October 2009 02:38:33 GMT Euro Zone Retail Sales to Shrink for Second Month in August
- Saturday, 03 October 2009 02:35:09 GMT Euro: Will Risk Appetite Hold EURUSD Up or Will the ECB Ease a Break?
- Friday, 02 October 2009 21:38:58 GMT US Dollar Forecast for Recovery Will be Put to the Test
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 23:15:36 GMT German Retail Sales to Shrink for Fourth Month, Outlook Remains Bleak
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 20:07:43 GMT US Dollar Down Despite Q2 GDP Revision - Testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke on Thursday
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 00:28:00 GMT Euro Growth Outlook Bolstered by Retail Activity, Confidence but Market Little Impressed
Indeed, the trade-weighted US dollar index (DXY) closed above key resistance at 88 for the first time since 2006.
While it would take a rally above the October 24 and November 7 highs of 88.79-88.91 to say we have a true breakout, it may only be a matter of time as the CBOE’s VIX volatility index closed at its highest level on record, while flight-to-quality has led Treasury yields on two, five, and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds to their lowest levels since the Treasury began regular issuance of the securities. Other indications of risk aversion could be found in the stock markets, as the major indexes all fell more than 5 percent. More specifically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest level since 2002 and the S&P 500 finished at 11+ year lows.
Meanwhile, US economic data was disappointing as the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index fell sharply during the month of November to the lowest level since 1990. The outlook for this sector is bleak amidst a combination of waning domestic and foreign demand, which should only contribute to additional job losses. In fact, this morning’s release of employment figures showed that initial jobless claims rose to the highest level since 1992 while continuing jobless claims broke the 4 million mark for the first time since 1982. Clearly, increasing filings for unemployment benefits doesn’t bode well for the unemployment rate, which already sits at a 14-year high of 6.5 percent. There are no key US releases due to hit the wires on Friday, making it all the more important to see if the US dollar can break above key resistance, or if the currency will simply back down.
Check out Daily Fundamentals in its entirety for analysis and outlooks on the US dollar, euro, British pound, Japanese yen, and the commodity dollars.
Resources
