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- Saturday, 17 October 2009 00:08:56 GMT Euro Near Major Top Against US Dollar, but Timing Anything but Clear
- Friday, 16 October 2009 23:25:32 GMT US Dollar May Be Setting Stage for Advance
- Wednesday, 14 October 2009 20:50:00 GMT Euro Rally Toward 1.50 Continues as Industrial Output Rises for Fourth Month
- Monday, 12 October 2009 20:05:09 GMT Euro Ends Week Just Above 1.4700 as German Trade Surplus Narrows
- Saturday, 10 October 2009 02:24:05 GMT US Dollar: At the Mercy of Risk Appetite...or is It?
- Friday, 09 October 2009 23:07:02 GMT Euro Could Succumb to ECB's Neutral Stance, Weak Data
- Friday, 09 October 2009 21:33:45 GMT Euro Ends Week Just Above 1.4700 as German Trade Surplus Narrows
- Friday, 09 October 2009 02:23:25 GMT German Current Account Set to Narrow in August
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 23:31:21 GMT Euro Looks like it May End up a Laggard in the Rate Game Given the ECB's Stance
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 23:30:39 GMT US Dollar and Dow on the Verge of Opposing Breaks
- Wednesday, 07 October 2009 21:15:48 GMT Euro Down as Q2 GDP Gets Revised Lower - European Central Bank Decision on Thursday
- Tuesday, 06 October 2009 17:45:40 GMT Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
- Monday, 05 October 2009 19:42:00 GMT Euro Mostly Higher as Services PMI Signals Expansion for First Time Since May 2008
- Monday, 05 October 2009 03:52:22 GMT Euro Zone Investor Confidence to Hit 14-Month High But Markets May Not Notice
- Monday, 05 October 2009 02:38:33 GMT Euro Zone Retail Sales to Shrink for Second Month in August
- Saturday, 03 October 2009 02:35:09 GMT Euro: Will Risk Appetite Hold EURUSD Up or Will the ECB Ease a Break?
- Friday, 02 October 2009 21:38:58 GMT US Dollar Forecast for Recovery Will be Put to the Test
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 23:15:36 GMT German Retail Sales to Shrink for Fourth Month, Outlook Remains Bleak
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 20:07:43 GMT US Dollar Down Despite Q2 GDP Revision - Testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke on Thursday
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 00:28:00 GMT Euro Growth Outlook Bolstered by Retail Activity, Confidence but Market Little Impressed
The US dollar gained on Thursday as risk aversion triggered flight-to-quality and sharp declines in US stocks for the second day in a row.
While the greenback still remains 300-350 points below its October highs versus the euro and British pound, it seems increasingly likely that we could see another test of those levels once again as event risk remains high. Indeed, Thursday’s release of US continuing jobless claims for the week ended October 25 rose to 3843K, the highest reading since 1983, which suggests that Friday's employment data could be very disappointing. In fact, non-farm payrolls - one of the most watch US economic indicators - are already forecasted to plunge by a whopping 200K. Another important thing to watch, though, will be the unemployment rate, which is anticipated to rise to match the June 2003 high of 6.3 percent from 6.1 percent. However, if the rate climbs even higher, it will actually end up being the highest since the early 1990's. In order to gauge the impact of these releases on the US dollar, it will be important to watch how risky assets respond to the 8:30 ET announcement. The easiest way to do this, perhaps, would be to look at US stock market futures, as signals of a sharp decline when the DJIA and S&P 500 open at 9:30 ET would suggest that the US dollar could strengthen quite a bit on safe-haven flows. On the other hand, if the numbers aren’t quite as dismal as forecasted, the US dollar may ultimately slip lower or simply consolidate through the trading day.
Related Article: How Much Does the US Dollar Forecast Depend on US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs)?
Check out Daily Fundamentals in its entirety for analysis and outlooks on the US dollar, euro, British pound, Japanese yen, and the commodity dollars.
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