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Euro: European Commission Announces 200 Billion Euro Fiscal Stimulus Proposal; Consumer Confidence, CPI Likely to Fall Further
Wednesday, 26 November 2008 21:49:37 GMT  |  Terri Belkas and John Kicklighter, Currency Strategists
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The European Commission announced a sweeping package of proposals this morning, worth approximately €200 billion and nearly equivalent to 1.5 percent of the Union’s GDP. European Commission President José Manuel Barroso also urged member countries to implement policies to boost growth, even if it pushed budget deficits beyond normally acceptable limits.

Mr. Barroso also noted that while measures shouldn’t be identical, they do need to be “coordinated.” This comes just a day after the US government pledged another $800 billion to improve lending conditions for homeowners and small businesses, and two days after the UK’s announcement of a £20bn fiscal stimulus plan. Looking ahead to Thursday, Germany unemployment is actually forecasted to fall slightly while consumer and business confidence in the Euro-zone is expected to have deteriorated further in November. Bigger event risk looms on Friday, though, as Eurostat estimates for Euro-zone CPI are projected to show at 5:00 ET that inflation growth eased to a 2.4 percent pace in November from 3.2 percent. Given European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet’s more bearish stance on economic growth and the bank’s participation in the October 8 coordinated rate cuts and their November 6 reduction during a scheduled meeting, a weaker-than-expected CPI reading could exacerbate the market’s speculation that the central bank will cut rates again soon. We also have to consider that the Euro-zone unemployment rate will also be released at the same time and is forecasted to edge up to 7.6 percent. Considering the dismal conditions plaguing the region’s economies, there is a risk that the unemployment rate will climb even higher, and combined with a drop in CPI, the euro could plunge.

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