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- Saturday, 17 October 2009 00:08:56 GMT Euro Near Major Top Against US Dollar, but Timing Anything but Clear
- Friday, 16 October 2009 23:25:32 GMT US Dollar May Be Setting Stage for Advance
- Wednesday, 14 October 2009 20:50:00 GMT Euro Rally Toward 1.50 Continues as Industrial Output Rises for Fourth Month
- Monday, 12 October 2009 20:05:09 GMT Euro Ends Week Just Above 1.4700 as German Trade Surplus Narrows
- Saturday, 10 October 2009 02:24:05 GMT US Dollar: At the Mercy of Risk Appetite...or is It?
- Friday, 09 October 2009 23:07:02 GMT Euro Could Succumb to ECB's Neutral Stance, Weak Data
- Friday, 09 October 2009 21:33:45 GMT Euro Ends Week Just Above 1.4700 as German Trade Surplus Narrows
- Friday, 09 October 2009 02:23:25 GMT German Current Account Set to Narrow in August
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 23:31:21 GMT Euro Looks like it May End up a Laggard in the Rate Game Given the ECB's Stance
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 23:30:39 GMT US Dollar and Dow on the Verge of Opposing Breaks
- Wednesday, 07 October 2009 21:15:48 GMT Euro Down as Q2 GDP Gets Revised Lower - European Central Bank Decision on Thursday
- Tuesday, 06 October 2009 17:45:40 GMT Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
- Monday, 05 October 2009 19:42:00 GMT Euro Mostly Higher as Services PMI Signals Expansion for First Time Since May 2008
- Monday, 05 October 2009 03:52:22 GMT Euro Zone Investor Confidence to Hit 14-Month High But Markets May Not Notice
- Monday, 05 October 2009 02:38:33 GMT Euro Zone Retail Sales to Shrink for Second Month in August
- Saturday, 03 October 2009 02:35:09 GMT Euro: Will Risk Appetite Hold EURUSD Up or Will the ECB Ease a Break?
- Friday, 02 October 2009 21:38:58 GMT US Dollar Forecast for Recovery Will be Put to the Test
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 23:15:36 GMT German Retail Sales to Shrink for Fourth Month, Outlook Remains Bleak
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 20:07:43 GMT US Dollar Down Despite Q2 GDP Revision - Testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke on Thursday
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 00:28:00 GMT Euro Growth Outlook Bolstered by Retail Activity, Confidence but Market Little Impressed
The euro continues to consolidate within a narrowing wedge formation that has most recently kept EUR/USD contained to a tight range of 1.2450 - 1.2600.
Likewise, the British pound whipped between 1.4700 - 1.5050 over the course of the day with little in the way of fundamental drivers. European economic data released this morning didn’t have a big impact, as the euro jumped at 5:00 ET despite the disappointing results of the Euro-zone PMI reports. Indeed, composite PMI showed that the Euro-zone’s manufacturing and service sectors contracted at the fastest pace in at least 10 years in November. Euro-zone GDP figures have already reflected recession, as the economy contracted 0.2 percent during both Q2 and Q3. Given the dismal nature of this PMI reports, it seems likely that GDP will probably fall negative during Q4 as well. Looking ahead to Monday, the IFO index of German business confidence is forecasted to show broad declines in sentiment on the business climate (from 90.2 to a 5-year low of 88.7), current economic conditions (from 99.9 to a 3-year low of 96.8), and the outlook for growth (from 81.4 to a record-low of 81.0). However, the November 11 release of the German ZEW survey shows that investor confidence on the economic outlook improved very slightly, while sentiment on current conditions fell further. Overall, businesses, investors, and consumers are likely to hold a cautious view of growth going forward, especially as the Euro-zone tips into recession and financial market instability shows no signs of easing. The release of this indicator at 4:00 ET tends to be a short term market-mover for the euro, though traders shouldn’t look for follow-through during the rest of the day.
Check out Daily Fundamentals in its entirety for analysis and outlooks on the US dollar, euro, British pound, Japanese yen, and the commodity dollars.
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