The euro fell nearly 200 points during the European trading session as Euro-zone economic data was disappointing by nearly all measures.
Indeed, the Bloomberg Retail Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the Euro-zone slipped further to 46.2 in September from 47.7, marking the fourth consecutive month of contraction (a number below 50 signals contracting business activity). Furthermore, Euro-zone consumer, economic, industrial, and services confidence all turned increasingly pessimistic and looking at Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, the markets are pricing in nearly 100bps worth of rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) over the next 12 months. However, a bigger driver of the drop in the euro and interest rate expectations was likely the indications of spreading financial problems. Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg invested 11.2 billion euros in Belgium’s largest financial-services firm, Fortis, while Germany’s Hypo Real Estate, the country’s second-biggest commercial-property lender, received a 35 billion euro loan guarantee in order to provide liquidity. The news triggered massive losses in European stock markets as well, with most equity indexes ending the day down over 4 percent. Looking ahead to Tuesday, Euro-stat’s estimate for Euro-zone CPI is expected to slip to 3.6 percent in September from 3.8 percent. With the ECB announcing their next rate decision on Thursday, the news could trigger sharp moves as weaker-than-expected data likely to send the euro lower while strong figures could propel the currency higher.
Related Article: ECB Rate Decision May Redefine The Euro’s Outlook
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