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- Saturday, 17 October 2009 00:08:56 GMT Euro Near Major Top Against US Dollar, but Timing Anything but Clear
- Friday, 16 October 2009 23:25:32 GMT US Dollar May Be Setting Stage for Advance
- Wednesday, 14 October 2009 20:50:00 GMT Euro Rally Toward 1.50 Continues as Industrial Output Rises for Fourth Month
- Monday, 12 October 2009 20:05:09 GMT Euro Ends Week Just Above 1.4700 as German Trade Surplus Narrows
- Saturday, 10 October 2009 02:24:05 GMT US Dollar: At the Mercy of Risk Appetite...or is It?
- Friday, 09 October 2009 23:07:02 GMT Euro Could Succumb to ECB's Neutral Stance, Weak Data
- Friday, 09 October 2009 21:33:45 GMT Euro Ends Week Just Above 1.4700 as German Trade Surplus Narrows
- Friday, 09 October 2009 02:23:25 GMT German Current Account Set to Narrow in August
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 23:31:21 GMT Euro Looks like it May End up a Laggard in the Rate Game Given the ECB's Stance
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 23:30:39 GMT US Dollar and Dow on the Verge of Opposing Breaks
- Wednesday, 07 October 2009 21:15:48 GMT Euro Down as Q2 GDP Gets Revised Lower - European Central Bank Decision on Thursday
- Tuesday, 06 October 2009 17:45:40 GMT Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
- Monday, 05 October 2009 19:42:00 GMT Euro Mostly Higher as Services PMI Signals Expansion for First Time Since May 2008
- Monday, 05 October 2009 03:52:22 GMT Euro Zone Investor Confidence to Hit 14-Month High But Markets May Not Notice
- Monday, 05 October 2009 02:38:33 GMT Euro Zone Retail Sales to Shrink for Second Month in August
- Saturday, 03 October 2009 02:35:09 GMT Euro: Will Risk Appetite Hold EURUSD Up or Will the ECB Ease a Break?
- Friday, 02 October 2009 21:38:58 GMT US Dollar Forecast for Recovery Will be Put to the Test
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 23:15:36 GMT German Retail Sales to Shrink for Fourth Month, Outlook Remains Bleak
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 20:07:43 GMT US Dollar Down Despite Q2 GDP Revision - Testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke on Thursday
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 00:28:00 GMT Euro Growth Outlook Bolstered by Retail Activity, Confidence but Market Little Impressed
The euro has remained weak due to a variety of factors, including broad US dollar strength due to safe-haven flows as well as negative interest rate expectations. In fact, Credit Suisse overnight index swaps continue to price in over 125bps worth of rate cuts by the European Central Bank over the next 12 months.
While the annual rate of Euro-zone CPI growth is still well above the ECB’s 2 percent target, the measure has eased to 3.6 percent in September from a high of 4.0 percent in July, suggesting that inflation pressures in the region are cooling. Furthermore, with economic growth slowing quite a bit in the region and the credit crisis taking a toll on European financial markets, the ECB has turned their attention away from inflation and onto recession risks. However, there are indications that the euro could rebound in the near-term. According to our latest forex positioning report, the FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) has recently flipped from net long EUR/USD to net short, and as a contrarian indicator, suggests that the pair could gain. There is no key European data scheduled to be released on Friday, but if we see that volatility dies down a bit and equities gain following the 4 percent rally in US shares on Thursday, the EUR/USD retracement higher could come sooner rather than later.
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Check out Daily Fundamentals in its entirety for analysis and outlooks on the US dollar, euro, British pound, Japanese yen, and the commodity dollars.
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