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- Saturday, 17 October 2009 00:08:56 GMT Euro Near Major Top Against US Dollar, but Timing Anything but Clear
- Friday, 16 October 2009 23:25:32 GMT US Dollar May Be Setting Stage for Advance
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- Friday, 09 October 2009 23:07:02 GMT Euro Could Succumb to ECB's Neutral Stance, Weak Data
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- Friday, 09 October 2009 02:23:25 GMT German Current Account Set to Narrow in August
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- Monday, 05 October 2009 03:52:22 GMT Euro Zone Investor Confidence to Hit 14-Month High But Markets May Not Notice
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- Saturday, 03 October 2009 02:35:09 GMT Euro: Will Risk Appetite Hold EURUSD Up or Will the ECB Ease a Break?
- Friday, 02 October 2009 21:38:58 GMT US Dollar Forecast for Recovery Will be Put to the Test
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 23:15:36 GMT German Retail Sales to Shrink for Fourth Month, Outlook Remains Bleak
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 20:07:43 GMT US Dollar Down Despite Q2 GDP Revision - Testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke on Thursday
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 00:28:00 GMT Euro Growth Outlook Bolstered by Retail Activity, Confidence but Market Little Impressed
The euro climbed to a fresh record high versus the British pound on Wednesday, helping to bring the EUR/USD pair up for a test of the November 5 and November 25 highs near 1.3070.
The moves came despite the fact European data remains broadly disappointing and signal potential for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank in coming months. The Swiss franc was similarly strong against the greenback, as USD/CHF continues its consolidation between support at 1.1925 and resistance at the November 21 highs of 1.2296. However, the Swissie’s next move may be determined by an upcoming rate decision. Of the 18 economists polled by Bloomberg News, 15 believe that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will cut rates by 50 basis points to 0.50 percent. On the other hand, 1 is betting on a 25 basis point reduction, while 4 forecast no change. Over the past two months, the SNB has been exceptionally aggressive when it comes to monetary policy, as they participated in the October 8 coordinated rate cuts (-50 basis points to 2.50 percent), and surprisingly slashed rates during unscheduled meetings on November 6 (-50 basis points to 2.00 percent) and November 20 (-100 basis points to 1.00 percent). According to a SNB press release from November 20, the central bank forecasted that inflation could fall below their 2 percent target before the end of the year and sees more pronounced risks for a "marked slowdown" in the Swiss economy next year in light of the worsening in international economic conditions. The Swiss franc has been one of the few currencies to respond to central bank rate decisions, compared to the euro and British pound, which are both trading higher even though the European Central Bank and Bank of England cut rates aggressively last Thursday. As a result, if the SNB does indeed cut rates in line with expectations, the Swiss franc could pull back. On the other hand, if the SNB leaves rates unchanged at 1.00 percent, the USD/CHF could break below support to target 1.1830.
Check out the Daily Fundamentals in its entirety for outlooks for the US dollar, euro, British pound, and other major currencies.
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