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- Saturday, 17 October 2009 00:08:56 GMT Euro Near Major Top Against US Dollar, but Timing Anything but Clear
- Friday, 16 October 2009 23:25:32 GMT US Dollar May Be Setting Stage for Advance
- Wednesday, 14 October 2009 20:50:00 GMT Euro Rally Toward 1.50 Continues as Industrial Output Rises for Fourth Month
- Monday, 12 October 2009 20:05:09 GMT Euro Ends Week Just Above 1.4700 as German Trade Surplus Narrows
- Saturday, 10 October 2009 02:24:05 GMT US Dollar: At the Mercy of Risk Appetite...or is It?
- Friday, 09 October 2009 23:07:02 GMT Euro Could Succumb to ECB's Neutral Stance, Weak Data
- Friday, 09 October 2009 21:33:45 GMT Euro Ends Week Just Above 1.4700 as German Trade Surplus Narrows
- Friday, 09 October 2009 02:23:25 GMT German Current Account Set to Narrow in August
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 23:31:21 GMT Euro Looks like it May End up a Laggard in the Rate Game Given the ECB's Stance
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 23:30:39 GMT US Dollar and Dow on the Verge of Opposing Breaks
- Wednesday, 07 October 2009 21:15:48 GMT Euro Down as Q2 GDP Gets Revised Lower - European Central Bank Decision on Thursday
- Tuesday, 06 October 2009 17:45:40 GMT Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
- Monday, 05 October 2009 19:42:00 GMT Euro Mostly Higher as Services PMI Signals Expansion for First Time Since May 2008
- Monday, 05 October 2009 03:52:22 GMT Euro Zone Investor Confidence to Hit 14-Month High But Markets May Not Notice
- Monday, 05 October 2009 02:38:33 GMT Euro Zone Retail Sales to Shrink for Second Month in August
- Saturday, 03 October 2009 02:35:09 GMT Euro: Will Risk Appetite Hold EURUSD Up or Will the ECB Ease a Break?
- Friday, 02 October 2009 21:38:58 GMT US Dollar Forecast for Recovery Will be Put to the Test
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 23:15:36 GMT German Retail Sales to Shrink for Fourth Month, Outlook Remains Bleak
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 20:07:43 GMT US Dollar Down Despite Q2 GDP Revision - Testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke on Thursday
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 00:28:00 GMT Euro Growth Outlook Bolstered by Retail Activity, Confidence but Market Little Impressed
German, French and Italian markets all remain closed today for Easter Monday, but this is most likely the calm before the storm as the biggest event risk this week is in the Eurozone. Our center focus is the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The ECB is not expected to change interest rates, having only lifted them last month.
However with the central bank still on track to raise interest rates in the second quarter, the comments by central bank President Trichet will be particularly important. A look back at Trichet’s changing language between the last two rate hikes in December and March may shed some light on what Trichet will say at the upcoming meeting. Before the most recent rate hike in March, Trichet raised rates in December 2006. At the December meeting, after raising rates, Trichet was optimistic, but intentionally dropped the words “strong vigilance” from the comments that he made in the accompanying press conference. He reconfirmed that he has not used the words “strong vigilance” in any of his comments at the January meeting and rates were left unchanged in both January and February. At the press conference after the February meeting, Trichet reintroduced the words “strong vigilance,” paving the way for the quarter point tightening that we saw in March. This suggests that if Trichet plans on raising rates in May, then he could reintroduce the words “strong vigilance” this Thursday. Anything otherwise would indicate that he wants to delay a rate hike to June. Meanwhile EUR/CHF continues to perform strongly with the currency pair reaching the highest level since the introduction of the Euro this morning. This also marks the ninth consecutive day of strength for a currency pair that typical range trades. Since the launch of the Euro, we have never seen a rally in EUR/CHF last for longer than nine trading days. The last time we saw nine straight days of strength was back in December.
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