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Canadian Dollar Forecast Abruptly Shifts on Sizeable Declines
Thursday, 23 April 2009 20:18:56 GMT  |  David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist
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USD/CAD ratio: 1.13
Trading Forecast: Bearish

04-23-09_ssi_6

USDCAD – Our forex trading signals remain effectively neutral the US Dollar/Canadian Dollar pair—a clear shift from an aggressively bearish stance seen last week. In our previous report, we aggressively called for Canadian Dollar appreciation versus its US namesake. An abrupt swing in market sentiment clearly made our forecasts grossly inaccurate, and choppy trading conditions make it extremely difficult to establish a firm USD/CAD bias. The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.13 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.04 as 51% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.7% higher than yesterday and 20.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.6% lower than yesterday and 8.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.7% stronger than yesterday and 3.8% above its monthly average. A near-neutral SSI ratio gives us little direction in the USD/CAD pair.

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