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Canadian Dollar Forecast to Rally Against US Dollar

Thursday, 04 September 2008 14:59:01 GMT

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst

USD/CAD Ratio: 1.35
Trading Signal: Bearish

Forex Positioning for the US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

 

Currency Last Week Present* % Long % Change in Positions Outstanding Signal
USDCAD 1.84 1.35 57% -17.63% Bearish

09-11-08-SSI2

 

USDCAD – Forex traders continue buying the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, as the ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.34 to 1. Yet a 25.1 percent overnight jump in short positions suggests that traders are shifting their bias on the USDCAD, and a flip to net-short territory would signal that further USDCAD rallies are in store. Our FXCM Speculative Sentiment index works as a contrarian indicator in trending markets, but it seems as though traders are naturally predisposed to buying the USDCAD and the SSI ratio has remained net positive for a very long time. As such, we give comparatively little weight to the current contrarian signal that we should sell the USDCAD through short-term forex trading.

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