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- Friday, 16 October 2009 23:37:26 GMT Canadian Dollar May Come Under Pressure Ahead of BOC Decision
- Monday, 12 October 2009 20:08:13 GMT Canadian Dollar Dominates as Economy Adds on 36,000 Jobs and Unemployment Rate Falls to 8.4%
- Friday, 09 October 2009 20:38:28 GMT Canadian Dollar Direction To Come From Inflation Data
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 23:32:34 GMT Canadian Dollar has a Busy Day Ahead of it with Employment, Trade and Business Activity Data
- Tuesday, 06 October 2009 18:37:28 GMT US Dollar Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
- Saturday, 03 October 2009 02:38:09 GMT Canadian Dollar Confronts its Own Employment Change Data
- Friday, 25 September 2009 21:42:35 GMT Canadian Dollar To Hold Range as Investors Weigh Outlook For Policy
- Monday, 21 September 2009 20:54:27 GMT Canadian Dollar Drops Further - Canadian Retail Sales Could Provide a Fundamental Boost
- Friday, 18 September 2009 22:05:33 GMT Canadian Dollar Risks Decline on Crude Oil Price Pullback
- Wednesday, 16 September 2009 19:39:28 GMT Canadian Dollar Gains with Commodities - CPI Report Presents Risks for USDCAD
- Monday, 14 September 2009 19:11:42 GMT Canadian Dollar Down as Capacity Utilization Falls to Record Low
- Friday, 11 September 2009 21:22:07 GMT Canadian Dollar May Lose Ground as Productivity, Price Pressures Falter
- Saturday, 05 September 2009 01:26:03 GMT Canadian Dollar Volatility Ahead on Rate Decision, Risk Trends
- Friday, 04 September 2009 18:49:50 GMT Commodity Dollars Lead the Way as Canadian Economy Unexpectedly Adds Jobs, Carry Trades Surge
- Friday, 04 September 2009 00:39:13 GMT Canadian Dollar will respond to Friday's NFPs and its Own Employment Data
- Wednesday, 02 September 2009 20:49:12 GMT US Dollar Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
- Monday, 31 August 2009 18:48:36 GMT Canadian Dollar Weakest of the Majors as Q2 GDP Drops 3.4%
- Friday, 28 August 2009 22:00:03 GMT Canadian Dollar Appears Range Bound As GDP and Unemployment Offset
- Friday, 28 August 2009 21:31:07 GMT Canadian Dollar the Weakest of the Majors Ahead of Mondayâs Q2 GDP Report
- Monday, 24 August 2009 21:47:35 GMT Canadian Dollar Gains on Surprisingly Strong Retail Sales
US Dollar - Canadian Dollar Long-Term Technical Forecast
I wrote last month that "the USDCAD break through its long term trendline strongly indicates that a long term bottom is in place. Former significant highs at 1.1882 and 1.2738 are bullish targets going forward." Both targets were met and if the corrective nature of the decline from 1.6194 suggests that the USDCAD will eventually exceed 1.6194 (this may take years though). A large correction of the recent rally would serve as wave 2 within the 5 wave impulse that began at .9055.
US Dollar - Canadian Dollar Fundamental Outlook, Interest Rate Forecast
The US Dollar-Canadian Dollar Interest rate differential is forecast to shrink dramatically in the coming 12 months, providing a bullish fundamental bias for the USD/CAD exchange rate. Markets predict that the Bank of Canada will cut rates aggressively in the year ahead-dealing a blow to the Canadian dollar. The US Federal Reserve, by comparison, will raise rates modestly and further compress the difference between US and Canadian yields.
In terms of interest rate differentials, traders predict that the US-Canadian yield spread will narrow by a whopping 179 basis points in the year ahead. Though the Canadian dollar has not necessarily been one of the most interest rate-sensitive currencies through recent trade, such a dramatic shift in yields may place further downward pressure on the CAD and force further USD/CAD rallies through the medium term.
Forex Sentiment and Positioning Forecast for US Dollar - Canadian Dollar
Forex Futures Suggest USD/CAD May Continue to Rally
Written by Jamie Saettele, Senior Strategist and David Rodríguez, Quantitative Analyst for DailyFX.com
We always want to hear your feedback on new DailyFX articles. Want more articles like this? Less? What do you want to see? E-mail the authors of this report at jsaettele@dailyfx.com and drodriguez@dailyfx.com.
More Articles
- Canadian Dollar May Come Under Pressure Ahead of BOC Decision
- Canadian Dollar Dominates as Economy Adds on 36,000 Jobs and Unemployment Rate Falls to 8.4%
- Canadian Dollar Direction To Come From Inflation Data
- Canadian Dollar has a Busy Day Ahead of it with Employment, Trade and Business Activity Data
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