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- Friday, 16 October 2009 21:38:07 GMT Australian Dollar Forecast to Rally Further on RBA Rate Hikes
- Tuesday, 13 October 2009 01:21:45 GMT Australian Business Confidence Fell For First in Five Months, Says NAB
- Friday, 09 October 2009 23:10:05 GMT Australian Dollar May Simply Consolidate After RBA-Induced Rally
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 23:33:09 GMT Australian Dollar Sees another Dramatic Stretch to New Highs on Employment
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 00:29:27 GMT Australian Dollar Soars as Economy Unexpectedly Gains 40k Jobs, Unemployment Rate Falls
- Wednesday, 07 October 2009 21:16:33 GMT Australian Dollar Loses Some Steam Ahead of Employment Report
- Tuesday, 06 October 2009 18:44:08 GMT Australian Dollar US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
- Tuesday, 06 October 2009 02:59:35 GMT Australian Dollar Surges as RBA Unexpectedly Raises Interest Rates
- Monday, 05 October 2009 19:21:01 GMT Australian Dollar Gaining Steam Ahead of Tuesday's RBA Rate Decision
- Friday, 02 October 2009 23:38:47 GMT Australian Dollar Rally May Finally Be Losing Steam
- Friday, 02 October 2009 01:00:02 GMT Australian Inflation Slowest in Six Years, Says TD Securities
- Saturday, 26 September 2009 02:19:52 GMT Australian Dollar to Track Risk as Markets Digest G20 Outcome
- Friday, 25 September 2009 00:14:51 GMT Australian Dollar Traders More Concerned Over Risk Trends than Confirmations of Financial Stability
- Thursday, 24 September 2009 01:13:22 GMT Australia's New Home Sales Matched Record Gain in August, Says HIA
- Friday, 18 September 2009 23:52:45 GMT Australian Dollar Remains Supported By Interest Rate Expectations
- Thursday, 17 September 2009 23:59:24 GMT Commodity Bloc Data Ticks Higher Yet Aussie, Kiwi and Canadian Dollars Struggle
- Wednesday, 16 September 2009 01:47:20 GMT Australia Won't Raise Interest Rates Until Next Year, Says Westpac
- Friday, 11 September 2009 21:25:03 GMT Australian Dollar Strength May be Tested by Reserve Bank Rhetoric
- Thursday, 10 September 2009 02:13:48 GMT Australian Jobs Report Disappoints, Weighs on RBA Rate Hike Expectations
- Wednesday, 09 September 2009 03:36:11 GMT Australia's Economic Recovery May Flounder on Rising Interest Rates
The Australian Dollar resumed its downward trend after a few days of consolidation dropping below 0.6100 as global recession concerns reached a crescendo on Friday. The higher than expected inflation data from the third quarter provided some support as it lowered interest rate expectations.
Australian Dollar Losses May Continue As Very Little Support Remains
Fundamental Outlook for Australian Dollar: Bearish
- Third Quarter Inflation Rose 5.0%-Fastest Pace Since 2001, Due To Previous Record High Oil Prices
- Producer Prices rose 2.0% from 1.0% in the second quarter
The Australian Dollar resumed its downward trend after a few days of consolidation dropping below 0.6100 as global recession concerns reached a crescendo on Friday. The higher than expected inflation data from the third quarter provided some support as it lowered interest rate expectations. Despite the elevated price pressure RBA Governor Stevens fully expects inflation to ease as growth slows which he reinforced when he stated ``Forces seem now to be building that will start to dampen pressures on prices -- even though we won't have evidence of that for a good six months''. Therefore, expectations are that the central bank will continue to cut rates which will be a weighing factor on future price action.
The upcoming economic calendar is filled with second tier indicators and may have little sway over price action given the macroeconomic factors that are dominating the markets. As expectations continue to decline for global growth the Australian Dollar may continue to trade heavy. The NAB business confidence survey presents the biggest invest risk as declining sentiment will dampen the outlook for future activity and feed the need for the central bank to take actions to promote growth. The DEWR skilled vacancies and HIA new home sales reports saw losses the month prior and further declines in the labor and home will add to dour outlook for the economy. Although the AUDUSD is at oversold levels according to the FXCM SSI at -1.36 as 57% of traders are short, the contrarian indictor has lost some of its predictive value in the current environment. The AUDUSD has fallen below the Fibo zone of the 0.4818- 0.9838 decline, which leave very little technical support between current values and 0.5500.- JR
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