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- Friday, 16 October 2009 20:19:30 GMT FX Technical Weekly
- Friday, 16 October 2009 15:38:06 GMT Australian & New Zealand Dollar Outside Days Warn of Reversals
- Friday, 16 October 2009 09:48:52 GMT Euro Finding Offers Ahead of 1.5000; Kiwi Sell Recommendation Issued (Morning Slices)
- Thursday, 15 October 2009 14:32:51 GMT British Pound Surges into Fibonacci Resistance
- Thursday, 15 October 2009 05:24:16 GMT Sterling Finally Plays Catch-Up (Morning Slices)
- Thursday, 15 October 2009 07:56:53 GMT EUR/USD Sell Recommendation Issued @1.5035 (Daily Classical)
- Wednesday, 14 October 2009 14:56:16 GMT US Dollar Slips Lower; Euro Resistance Line at 1.5000 Today
- Wednesday, 14 October 2009 06:46:55 GMT Euro Surge Exposes Psychological Barrier (Daily Classical)
- Tuesday, 13 October 2009 18:19:16 GMT New Zealand Dollar Shows Reversal Characteristics
- Tuesday, 13 October 2009 07:47:43 GMT Euro Double Top Prospects Intact (Daily Classical)
- Monday, 12 October 2009 14:39:22 GMT Canadian Dollar Reaches Measured Objective Above 1.0300
- Monday, 12 October 2009 07:35:23 GMT Euro Carving Double Top (Daily Classical)
- Monday, 12 October 2009 07:35:23 GMT Euro Carving Double Top (Daily Classical)
- Friday, 09 October 2009 21:51:30 GMT FX Technical Weekly
- Friday, 09 October 2009 08:17:49 GMT British Pound Consolidates, Euro Hints Double Top Against US Dollar
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 14:42:21 GMT Dollar Fear Escalates as Prospect of a Panic Decline Emerge
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 06:28:39 GMT Prospects Fade for USD Bulls (Daily Classical)
- Wednesday, 07 October 2009 14:32:02 GMT Dollar Fights Back-AUD and NZD Reach Early 2008 Prices
- Wednesday, 07 October 2009 06:41:58 GMT Euro Stops Narrowly Averted (Daily Classical)
- Tuesday, 06 October 2009 18:26:25 GMT EUR/GBP Failure at Resistance Provides Scalping Opportunity
The EURUSD plunged 300+pips during the previous trading day as market participants expect the European Central Bank to continue their easing cycle, and the euro will remain on the defensive over the near-term as investors expect the central bank to lower the benchmark interest rate by at least 50bp in 2009.
Currency Pair: EUR/USD
Chart: 60 Min Charts
Short-Term Bias: Bearish
Analysis Update
The EURUSD moved in our favor during the last few hours of trading, and the euro is likely to weaken further against the greenback as investors price-in a rate cut by the ECB. The pair dropped 150+pips to break below 1.3525 (50.0% Fib), and may work its way towards 1.3240-50 (61.8% Fib) over the remainder of the week to test for support. However, the increasing gap from the 120 SMA paired with an oversold RSI signal suggests that a short-term retracement is underway, but as investors remain bearish against the euro, I expect the pair to hold its broad range over the near-term. Meanwhile, the fundamental event risks scheduled for the next 24 hours may call for a change in our outlook.
Analysis
The EURUSD plunged 300+pips during the previous trading day as market participants expect the European Central Bank to continue their easing cycle, and the euro will remain on the defensive over the near-term as investors expect the central bank to lower the benchmark interest rate by another 50bp in 2009. After dipping to a low of 1.2329 on 10/28, the pair bounced back to reach a high of 1.4720 on 12/18 but ended the session lower, which indicates that investors are bearish against the euro. Meanwhile, the euro-dollar looks to be testing 1.3525 (50.0% Fib retracement level) for short-term support, and a break below this level should drag the pair lower over the week, but the divergence from the 120 SMA suggests that a retracement could be underway. Be sure to check out other Technical Reports from DailyFX for additional information on the major currency pairs.
To contact the author of this article, please email: dsong@fxcm.com
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