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US Dollar, Japanese Yen Higher As Risk Aversion Grips Forex Market (Euro Open)

Monday, 02 February 2009 04:53:39 GMT  |  Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen rose as risk aversion returned with a vengeance at the open of the trading week: stock markets fell over 2% as poor revenue projections boosted fears of how dwindling global demand will be reflected in the earnings-reporting season. Forex price action is likely to continue to fall with risk trends as the economic calendar is fairly light in European hours.

Key Overnight Developments

• TD Securities Sees Australian Inflation Rise in January, RBA Still To Cut Rates
• Australian Annual House Prices Fall For First Time in 6 Years
• Stocks Fall, USD and JPY Rise on Renewed Flight From Risky Assets


Critical Levels





The Euro saw selling in overnight trading, dropping -0.6% against the US dollar on approach to challenging the 1.27 level. The British Pound also faltered, losing a full 1.0% against the greenback, testing below the 1.44 mark.

Related Article: US Dollar Positions To Resume Rally Against Major Currencies


Asia Session Highlights














Australia’s House Price Index saw property values fell -0.8% in the fourth quarter, bringing the annual rate of depreciation to -3.3%. This is the first time in 6 years that the annualized reading has slipped into negative territory. Deepening economic slowdown and scarce credit access has turned consumers away from big-ticket purchases. Indeed, HIA New Home Sales shrank again through December (albeit less so than in the preceding month as a good portion of the government’s A$45 billion handout was targeted at first-time property buyers).

TD Securities Inflation ticked up for the first time since September, adding 0.8% to bring the annual pace of price growth to 2.7%. Last week, we saw that producer prices grew significantly more than was expected as the rapidly depreciating Australian Dollar eroded firms’ purchasing power, inflating production costs and causing them to pass on the added expenditure to buyers of the finished items. Still, the result is “unlikely to discourage the central bank from cutting the cash rate by 100 basis points,” said TD Securities’ senior strategist Joshua Williamson. The markets generally agree, with overnight index swaps pricing in a full 1.00% reduction in benchmark interest rates when the Reserve Bank of Australia convenes tomorrow.

Related Article: Australian Dollar Likely to Fall on Economic Data, Risk Aversion


Euro Session: What to Expect













The economic calendar is fairly light in European hours, offering little that has not already been priced into the forex market. A series of Purchasing Manager Index reports from major EU nations is expected to show manufacturing sentiment at multi-year lows as on broadly shrinking global demand. Indeed, the International Monetary Fund said last week that global economic growth will come to a “virtual standstill” in 2009 to yield just 0.5%, the lowest yet in the postwar period.

On balance, price action is likely to look to stock exchanges for directional cues. Risk aversion returned with a vengeance at the open of the trading week with the MSCI Asia Pacific index of stock performance falling over 2% as poor revenue projections from consumer electronics firms Hitachi Ltd and Panasonic Corp boosted fears of how dwindling global demand will be reflected in the earnings-reporting season. The move away from risky assets lifted safe-haven currencies, with the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen adding 0.5% apiece against a trade-weighted basket of each currency’s respective value. More of the same is likely ahead: Wall St stock index futures are down about half of a percent ahead of the opening bell in Europe while the US economic calendar is set to kick off a blistering week of heavy event risk late into the session with the ISM Manufacturing survey and the Personal Spending report. Traders have treated the trajectory of the US economy as synonymous with that of the world at large, expecting a rebound in the world’s largest consumer market to have positive spillover elsewhere.

Related Articles: Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 02.02.09


To contact Ilya regarding this or other articles he has authored, please email him at ispivak at dailyfx dot com.

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