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US Consumer Inflation

By , Chief Currency Strategist
15 September 2006 12:41 GMT

US CPI (AUG) (YoY)
3.8% Actual vs. 3.8% Forecast
4.1% Previous

The market seemed an efficient predictor when all was said and done with August's inflation numbers.  For the month headline inflation rose 0.2% versus expectations of such and slower than last month's 0.4% pace.   The core number were also measuring up to the same against their respective expected values, though theirs' saw a same monthly read from July while the annual gauge actually ticked higher from the previous month.  This indicator of inflation in the consumer basket straightened on the sentiment surrounding yesterday's Import Price Index, which was higher in its monthly calculations and lower on the annual.  One bullish caveat to this data, is the fact that yearly core CPI is at its highest level in recent history, suggesting inflationary pressures could persist even as prices for volatile fuel are falling.  These numbers should be watched for such a trend to form.  All in all, the same recipe will be available to policy makers at the next meet.  Persistent inflation and softer growth.  John Kicklighter

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15 September 2006 12:41 GMT