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05-02-2012, 04:12 PM #74176
resis coming in right now. monthly pivot and 200MA at 9,900. supp the weekly pivot 9,865 & 9,800 respectively lower down. we break up and the bulls will be back in charge which i like
never thought in my life i would have fun looking at charts and drawing lines part time.......
05-02-2012, 05:19 PM #74177
I think its going to be hard for Mr. Draghi to justify anything except a dovish stance tomorrow. Economic reports from the eurozone have been abysmal lately
05-02-2012, 05:22 PM #74178
Bull or Bear ?
I am long now @ 1.31533. I see the bottom of a range at 1.31500 plus the 20 day sma at the same level. Everybody seems to expect a drop and if they are right I will take a small loss and reverse, if I am right I could net a great win. Bull runs like to stay above the 20 day sma and bear runs like to stay below the 20 day sma, the problem is this is neither a strong bull or strong bear so we have to wait and see.
05-02-2012, 05:42 PM #74179
I would never recommend shorting a 4 hour candle that looks like that.
Originally Posted by Foxy1
05-02-2012, 07:56 PM #74180
Agreed, I think the ECB may actually signal not only dovishness but are reluctance to continue with the same flow of liquidity. The kick the can down the road theme of 2011 is going to come home to roost, same as in the US.
Originally Posted by Mary R
AND glad the hear from you!
05-02-2012, 08:54 PM #74181
yes, good to see you posting. I haven't really seen any clear signal from the eur/usd lately but depending on what happens tomorrow and with Friday's NFP report it could likely break out of its tight trading range very soon
Originally Posted by stkelrey
05-02-2012, 11:23 PM #74182
The EUR/USD Wedge has played through nicely so that profit is tagged and bagged, so now where do we go from here,.... I think we may drop some more but i will stay aside and patiently wait for the next clear trade. By viewing the daily chart, we know that the 1.3000 area has been solid support for the Euro for just about 4 months now and we may just re visit that area again. I see support around 1.3027 which is Monthly S1. If we do reach that level i will look to possible bullish divergence to take the trade for another bull move. Every attempt so far at breaching a 1.3000 area close has been met with strong buying. Time will tell where we go and get out of this sideways movement, As of now though i am bullish due to the weekly chart. GL all.
“There are no limitations to the mind except those we acknowledge.”
05-02-2012, 11:44 PM #74183
SO, I seem to dredged up some old feelings among a lot of you here. Thanks for the encouraging words, though some made me laugh:
"...you shouldn't expect to hit a jackpot right when you're starting..." no, no, no, I was expecting to get beat up when I started, which is why I kept the account small with a strict total-stop-loss; but, I was expecting to have gotten to "win-some-lose-some" by this point.
"...don't let your first margin call get you down..." LOL! the first margin call was a month and a half ago, and I've lost count since.
"...I kept losing and losing, and was down 60K..." wow, stryker, you're a braver man than I am; no way am I playing with thousands before I can manage to play with hundreds.
"...so you still have tens of dollars in your account..." hey, it's not that bad; I still have hundreds in the account, just not as many hundreds as I used to.
Anyhoo, I put the EUR/USD shorts back on and just didn't look at it for a couple days. My losses went to -497 before starting to turn back my way. -500 was my drop-dead point, and don't you guys tell me to make your plan and STICK to it? So since I didn't fall through -500, I guess God doesn't want me to quit just yet. I tested myself: looked over the various pairs to pick four small plays, the best one for 2 and the others for 1, then let them ride an hour. OK, three out of four, including my "best" pick, went my way; the other badly against, but net profit +5 pips, a whole 50 cents and I deserve it! Which is to say, I can still, when I'm not in a frustrated exasperated TAKE THAT YOU DAMNED MARKET! kind of mood, pick the right direction a little over 50% and make the gains outweigh the losses.
What am I learning? That I can easily fall into "gambler's disease" in all of its various forms. I have mentioned before that I also have a demo account that I scarcely pay attention to: it went from 46K to 53K in April, respectable enough (especially contrasted to 50K->46K in March) and zoomed up nearly to 56K just in the days I wasn't looking (big winner? I bought a lot of cable when both euro and dollar were looking sickly, then flipped that to short when it got way up there; didn't do much GBP with the real account, which is a coulda-woulda-shoulda). But as soon as I touch real money, even in minor amounts, my whole psychology changes, in damaging ways.
News? Euro-bankers are doing a lot of reconsidering in public, probably much much more in private, and I think the notion that the euro has to be allowed to depreciate is going to be forced on them. Madrid was calm on Mayday, perhaps because of the rain (Oakland California saw much worse); a couple spats in Athens between marchers and Golden Dawn types (neo-Nazis), but just a couple signs grabbed and smashed etc.-- nobody in the hospital. All in all, the political temperature is cooler than I was afraid of recently, except that in the Netherlands Geert Wilders (anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant) is making louder noises than usual, hoping that Le Pen's showing and the Golden Dawn resurgence bode well for his kind of right-wing message (but those elections aren't until September). And of course, on the US side we all know to look out for the NFP print on Friday. I intend per usual to be short like mad before the news, with a stop-loss not so tight as what burned me Monday. Then Sunday, Hollande will shellack Sarkozy, and the Greeks will install a hopelessly hung Parliament (I predict nine parties will get seats).
Last edited by Robert Eckert; 05-02-2012 at 11:49 PM.
05-03-2012, 01:30 AM #74184
EUR n USD
Expected range on euro is 3110-3220-27.. The view is based on view shown on the USD rather than on euro.. We have current supp on euro at around 3130 but a play to 3110-12 is still valid for a lil push higher on USD upto 9920 is still on the card..
NFP just might be the kicker to have the USD out of the tight ranges and would subsequently have euro breaking out of the range as well.
Without keeping things complicated and simplifying the factors here, a break on USD higher to 9920-25 clean calls in for swifter gains on the USD.. hence a break higher to 9920-25 and if the price can maintain a momentum higher to it, we should be expecting a eventual push higher on it.. euro for that matter would be lower to 3100 and possibly heading to testing 1.3000...
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
05-03-2012, 03:20 AM #74185
Released short for no gain and targeting longs for 1.3202 - this is the weekly and monthly pivot area, the 50% retracement of the move down from 1.3283 and where my 240 min range channel suggests a good entry for a short.
Originally Posted by Clivewaverider
Supporting charts for your reference. Note the 8hr stochmom in chart 4 - not turned that daily MACD yet!
05-03-2012, 04:36 AM #74186
EUR/USD May 3 - 2012
Volatility has contracted and price is currently being capped by 1.3175, which is also the level where we find today's pivot point level. This is short term resistance and can be used as a base for a short position with a profit target at 1.31 and 1.3070 but I am not sure if 1.3175 will hold. Thus I would not go short with the help of the 1.3175 level if I want to trade the EUR/USD.
A breakout above 1.3175 would take price to the 1.3200 level which is a better level to consider short positions as it here were we find resistance for the longer term trend - the trend will be bearish as long as we trade under 1.3250.
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EUR/USD 60 min chart
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05-03-2012, 05:30 AM #74187
yeah, that all makes sense. think i'll take a tiny 'hit and hope' short at 150, stop 165. you never know. supose if we go above 170 we should reach 210?
05-03-2012, 05:49 AM #74188
to me it should(must) not break the yesterday's low and if does then its a new lower low and if it does happen then we my see prices below 3100 may be to 3085-90 area, atr support rite at 3074, the thing to be noticed we are already in atr extended mode,
another thing to me the hourly close should be above 3131
thank you and use leverage wisely!
05-03-2012, 06:21 AM #74189
for the fibonacci lovers!
i want to talk little about fibs how i use them if you ppl allow me to lol
for a moment forget every thing except fibs, in the chart you will see point "a" and point "b"
1: point "a" is when prices find resistance at 78.6% or 76.4% and when they break prices usually find next resistance at 50%
2: point "b" is when prices find resistance at 66.6% or 61.2% and when they break prices usually find next resistance at 38.2% or 33.3%.
thank you and use this only as a tool for better decision making while trading
the above crap invalidated after the extremes are broken i.e high and lows for that particular fib levels.
chart attached for better understanding
05-03-2012, 06:51 AM #74190
ECB Rate Decision Could Lead to "Pop and Drop" Price Action
ECB Rate Decision Could Lead to "Pop and Drop" Price Action- Initial move after the ECB's rate announcement could send pair back toward the 1.3200 area before a push lower in the 1.3078 zone.
This whipsaw action could lead to much higher Euro after the NY equity open.
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