Trade FOREX with FXCM

  • Award-Winning Platform
  • 24/7 Customer Support
  • Trade Directly on Charts
  • Free $50K Practice Account
Register


Results 64,516 to 64,530 of 96665
Page 4302 of 6445 FirstFirst ... 3302 3802 4202 4252 4292 4298 4299 4300 4301 4302 4303 4304 4305 4306 4312 4352 4402 4802 5302 ... LastLast

Thread: GBP and JPY Pairs H1 2013

  1. #64516
    New Game's Avatar
    New Game is offline Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    168
    Blog Entries
    1

    just trying

    intraday1.4515

  2. #64517
    AyoBro's Avatar
    AyoBro is offline Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    2,129
    Quote Originally Posted by banison View Post
    Pivot points, definitely my favorites.
    I just checked the weekly PP for EURUSD.
    1) Today's high is 5 pips shy from this week's R1.
    2) This week's R2 is at 1.47 which is previous major high and I guess we'll see a huge resistance there. Maybe that's a target, too.
    P.
    I was looking at that exact same thing, weekly R2. Being that I'm brand-spankin new to pivots, I have no data, so I'll be spending some quality time with her(pivots). To my folks, I'm going to need some more time away to study this phenom.
    nopainnogain, FXTA and cw1 like this.
    Go ahead switch the style up' And if they hate then let them hate and watch the money pile up.'

  3. #64518
    Alejandro Zambrano's Avatar
    Alejandro Zambrano is offline DailyFX Analyst and Forum Moderator
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    21,055
    Blog Entries
    1
    EUR/USD London session review and outlook, July 26 - 2011






    Regards

    Alejandro Zambrano
    Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)

    azambrano@fxcm.com

    Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join.
    FXTA and Cosco like this.

  4. #64519
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    647
    Blog Entries
    19
    Quote Originally Posted by Cosco View Post
    Seems to me that the market can price in many macro stuff. Indeed, it has a kind of "emerging intelligence". I mean actually it is realistic. Let's take an example. US is keeping suspense : so will if default ? For people like you and me who are not politics or economists, there may be a doubt. For professionnal trader I don't think so. So the most probable solution is already priced in.

    what you need to think of is what will happen as a result of what outcome. as a long term reader of macro policy and economics, i'd say its impossible the US is going to stop issuing debt as politically this would be a disaster for the US economy, growth and employment. therefore, when they raise the debt level what happen? initially the USD reverses its losses - moves like the ones that happened on the 25th evening during the obama / boehner speech. then what? the govt issues the debt: but overseas demand for US assets is falling (see the tic data; Asian CB buying of EURUSD). therefore when they do have to raise what happens to yields? they rise. Then what? US equity market falls. This dents confidence, spending etc. etc. then to maintain the 'economy' the Fed starts QE3 - everything ok again, US gets more inflation and the dollar declines against trade surplus countries. This is the kind of thing that drives long term, then you fix short term movements, which are more technical, into your long term expectations. obviously timing is key in each step.

  5. #64520
    nopainnogain is offline Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    1,599
    rest: could be time for a little rest.

  6. #64521
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    647
    Blog Entries
    19
    Quote Originally Posted by jerejim View Post
    None of this makes sense to me. I just don't get the fundemental reasons for the EU to be higher. Technically it seems like when we rally up its on low volume. Anyhow fun to watch but the outcomes just seem to raise more questions.
    remember, greece/ ireland / portugal mean jack s*/# compared to an economy like n. europe. italy has a much smaller deficit than ppl think and they've been managing debt for a long time. spain more of an issue but their economy has so much room for improvement.

    n. europe could erase th PIG debt for good tomorrow if they wanted by printing money and still have done only about 1/2 the printing the fed has over the last 2 yrs
    t3t4 likes this.

  7. #64522
    t3t4 is offline Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    891
    Quote Originally Posted by AyoBro View Post
    I was looking at that exact same thing, weekly R2. Being that I'm brand-spankin new to pivots, I have no data, so I'll be spending some quality time with her(pivots). To my folks, I'm going to need some more time away to study this phenom.

    New to pivots? Wow!

    Just because I'm a nice guy, I'll help you get started with some basic settings. Specifically regarding time frames, decide which fame of time is most important to you. Then, settings are as follows:

    Anything less then 4 hour charts, use a 1 hour pivot point.

    A 4 hour chart and greater time frames will respect a daily pivot point.

    A daily chart will obviously respect the daily pivot, but also a weekly pivot point as well. You may want two charts set up differently for the daily time frame.

    The above settings are what I use and they work, but tweak however you like until you feel comfortable the charts will respect them. Cause when you get it right, pivot points are magic, or at least they work like magic! But also understand what they are which is a "calculated" mathematical extrapolation of support and resistance levels.

    Happy Trading,
    t3t4
    nopainnogain and FXTA like this.

  8. #64523
    stkelrey's Avatar
    stkelrey is online now Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Posts
    944
    Quote Originally Posted by MysticMegatron View Post
    remember, greece/ ireland / portugal mean jack s*/# compared to an economy like n. europe. italy has a much smaller deficit than ppl think and they've been managing debt for a long time. spain more of an issue but their economy has so much room for improvement.

    n. europe could erase th PIG debt for good tomorrow if they wanted by printing money and still have done only about 1/2 the printing the fed has over the last 2 yrs
    don't forget a good amount of the printing the Fed has done in the last two years went to Europe. the are riding a fictitious balance sheet. Well over $200 billion USD in Q4 2008 alone. They still have big issues. Without the US infusing capital, Europe would be in a serious depression.

  9. #64524
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    647
    Blog Entries
    19
    Quote Originally Posted by Mary R View Post
    I don't know how the issue will be resolved or how the authorities will react. Constitutional lawyers all over the country are probably debating it as we speak. Obama could simply ignore the debt ceiling but maybe he will save that for a last minute resolution. If the military doesn't get paid some of the soldiers might be inclined to go to DC and shove a gun in the face of the Congressmen and see how they react.
    i think culturally is the easiest way to describe the situation. in Japan they don't print money, they try and do the long term growth adjustment - hence no growth for all these years but living standards in the country are still high. thats why the yen is always so strong - the Japanese actually make more stuff than they use. The americans are the opposite. they use more than they make and are lucky the country has the global reserve currency (wait until the RMB is liberalised and there will be some big surprises). the easiest way out of there problem is to inflate - essentially defaulting on debt by reducing the foreign value of the USD, and hence the bonds that are usd denominated. the difference now compared to 2008 when the USD really strengthened is the attitude towards the usd: china, russia, brazil all looking to move away from it as they know the long term deficit situation. do you think china wants to keep giving away so much stuff to the US forever and only recieving USD and nothing tangible in return? even bond managers like bill gross have been very vocal on this subject. ppl are now looking for alternatives to usd: euros (european economy is much more externally self sufficient in terms of trade than the US), commodities and there are only going to be more as emerging economies develop.

  10. #64525
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    647
    Blog Entries
    19
    Quote Originally Posted by stkelrey View Post
    don't forget a good amount of the printing the Fed has done in the last two years went to Europe. the are riding a fictitious balance sheet. Well over $200 billion USD in Q4 2008 alone. They still have big issues. Without the US infusing capital, Europe would be in a serious depression.
    agreed, but due to global dependance on an asset that no-one wants any longer (at least at historical prices) - US MBS and US treasuries. its terms of trade that will drive economic progress re. currency over the long term.

    to stabilise the stock market you need a truer representation of the risk free rate - and this is no longer US libor or any treasury rate for a global economy.

  11. #64526
    Mary R's Avatar
    Mary R is offline Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    3,323
    Quote Originally Posted by MysticMegatron View Post
    remember, greece/ ireland / portugal mean jack s*/# compared to an economy like n. europe. italy has a much smaller deficit than ppl think and they've been managing debt for a long time. spain more of an issue but their economy has so much room for improvement.

    n. europe could erase th PIG debt for good tomorrow if they wanted by printing money and still have done only about 1/2 the printing the fed has over the last 2 yrs
    That's not really accurate. In fact there are some analysts who have calculated that most of the major banks in the EU are insolvent based on realistic estimates of their sovereign debt load. For example, the leveraged debt load of the banks in the UK is larger than the entire GDP of the UK economy. And Mr. Trichet has been adamant that their focus is on fighting inflation, which is one of the reasons for the strength in the euro. There could be multiple failures of major banks in Europe in the next several years, which could put Europe into a deep downturn.
    The US would not have a problem getting its deficit under control if the legislative and executive branches could find common ground. But there is a fundamental ideological schism in the US regarding the role of government and taxation, and it might come to a head in a big showdown next week.

  12. #64527
    t3t4 is offline Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    891
    Quote Originally Posted by MysticMegatron View Post
    remember, greece/ ireland / portugal mean jack s*/# compared to an economy like n. europe. italy has a much smaller deficit than ppl think and they've been managing debt for a long time. spain more of an issue but their economy has so much room for improvement.

    n. europe could erase th PIG debt for good tomorrow if they wanted by printing money and still have done only about 1/2 the printing the fed has over the last 2 yrs
    Nice to read that somebody got the point! The EU is barely half the crisis of the U.S., and yet all we hear about all the time are the EU worries galore... It's not about being too big to fail, it's about an entire nation/union/etc only half as bad off as the little US of A. It's also about the choices made between the two.

    The same problems on both fronts for the same reasons, but, two very different solutions!

    Happy Trading,
    t3t4

  13. #64528
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    647
    Blog Entries
    19
    Quote Originally Posted by Mary R View Post
    That's not really accurate. In fact there are some analysts who have calculated that most of the major banks in the EU are insolvent based on realistic estimates of their sovereign debt load. For example, the leveraged debt load of the banks in the UK is larger than the entire GDP of the UK economy. And Mr. Trichet has been adamant that their focus is on fighting inflation, which is one of the reasons for the strength in the euro. There could be multiple failures of major banks in Europe in the next several years, which could put Europe into a deep downturn.
    The US would not have a problem getting its deficit under control if the legislative and executive branches could find common ground. But there is a fundamental ideological schism in the US regarding the role of government and taxation, and it might come to a head in a big showdown next week.
    ok, i'm not saying that the PIGS issue is without consequence, as it obviously is - very large consequence. however if you take the PIGS sovereign debt vs. eurozone GDP then its a relatively small number. if the ECB decided to replace all the PIGS debt with euros then the banking system is filled with confidence and the euro economy much closer to being sustainable than the US, although the euro tanks and we get all the problems associated with that. Of course this is not in anyones projections, because of the ECB stance on price stability, but it is an economic reality.
    on the other side, the US debt is much a bigger issue as this is a larger proportion of global GDP (than the pigs debt is of euro GDP) and its fiscal situation is ridiculously unmanageable at the moment. spending almost 2x what they earn in the biggest economy bay far. its only contagion in europe that is the issue. the US debt is the bigger threat to the west.
    as far as the 'UK' banks are concerned, if these go down (imagine HSBC goes bust) every country is screwed. super-lehman style. but they're not 'uk' banks, they're global banks.
    a lot of analysts have said japan's debt is unmanageable but its not - because of a/ who owns it and b/ the countries productivity, terms of trade and importance in global output compared to its own demand. this is less the case for europe than japan, but its better than the US. because of the dollar standard, the US is in a very bad position that its been digging itself into for many many years now. debt sustainability can't be measured properly as noone knows what will happen in 1 month let alone 10 years. what we do know though is the US trade deficit is in a much worse situation now than all the other major economies. as china and other big trade creditors of the US move away from the dollar standard (because of the US attitude to its currency) the US is in deep trouble.

    a bit rambly but i'm not looking for a pullitzer
    Last edited by MysticMegatron; 07-26-2011 at 06:30 PM. Reason: additions
    t3t4 likes this.

  14. #64529
    banison's Avatar
    banison is offline Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    493
    Re: PP
    You know what's sweet? Today's R1 is almost to the pip July's high (1.457x).
    I wonder whether that's a good level to short.
    รูป รูป  
    AyoBro likes this.
    In order to make a profit, learn first how to take the loss.

  15. #64530
    banison's Avatar
    banison is offline Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    493

    EURUSD 5min

    In the meantime...
    รูปขนาดเล็ก รูปขนาดเล็ก GBP and JPY Pairs H1 2013-eurusd0726nn.jpg  

    In order to make a profit, learn first how to take the loss.

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.